Sydney/Tokyo: Asian shares and currencies struggled on Thursday after the Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time in a year and hinted at the risk of a faster pace of tightening than investors were positioned for.
Yields on short-term U.S. debt surged to the highest since 2009, sending the dollar to peaks not seen in almost 14 years, which in turn prompted China to set the yuan at its weakest level against the greenback since 2008.
The Fed's anticipated policy path, and expectations U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will set growth on a higher gear, are keeping Asian policymakers on edge as capital gets sucked out from the fragile export-dependent regional economies toward dollar-based assets.
"The markets were surprised by the dot plots. Given that the 10-year U.S. bond yield has risen above the key level of 2.5 percent, the sell-off in bonds is likely to continue," said Hiroko Iwaki, senior strategist at Mizuho Securities.
The change came even as the Fed's economic projections have hardly been upgraded, suggesting the Fed could accelerate tightening even further if policymakers see firmer evidence of higher growth or inflation.
"The U.S. economy is already on a solid expansion but the new administration wants to do large-scale spending. That could surely boost inflation and U.S. bond yields," said Norihiro Fujito, senior investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities in Tokyo.
The 10-year U.S. Treasuries yields rose to 2.584 percent, having risen more than 0.7 percentage point since Trump was elected as the next U.S. President.
Yields on two-year Treasury paper jumped more than 10 basis points to 1.28 percent, the biggest daily increase since early 2015 and the highest level since August 2009. They stood at 1.267 percent in Asia.
EMERGING PRESSURE
It also took the premium that U.S. Treasuries pay over German two-year debt to its fattest since 2000.
The allure of higher U.S. yields raises risks for emerging markets in Asia and elsewhere, as funds look to take advantage of rising U.S. rates in an environment of sluggish global growth.
The yuan promptly fell to its lowest levels in more than eight years, reflecting the weakening in the daily mid-point. Low-yielding currencies such as the Singapore dollar and Korean won came under pressure, and analysts anticipate the low-yielders will be on the back foot in an environment of a rising dollar, higher U.S. yields and a depreciating yuan. The Singapore dollar fell near its January low and is on the verge of slipping to its lowest September 2009.
Even high-yielding currencies in Asia could return some of their recent gains if investors shy away from risk, Citi analysts said in a note.
The U.S. dollar was already up across the board, hitting a near 14-year peak against a basket of currencies at 102.62.
The dollar rose to 117.86 yen, its highest level since early February, though that drop in the yen cushioned Japanese stocks, lifting Nikkei 0.3 percent.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 1.2 percent.
Wall Street suffered its biggest percentage decline since before the Nov. 8 U.S. presidential election, though the loss was slight compared with gains of the last month or so.
The Dow ended Wednesday down 0.6 percent, while the S&P 500 lost 0.81 percent and the Nasdaq 0.5 percent.
The rising dollar slugged oil prices, already smarting from concerns about oversupply.
Brent crude futures dropped to $53.87 per barrel, turning negative on the week. Similarly U.S. crude was quoted at $50.87 per barrel, having slipped 6.7 percent from its near 1 1/2-year peak hit on Monday.
Gold dropped to its lowest in more than 10 months around $1,135.1 an ounce.
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