After Big Jump, Daily Covid-19 Vaccinations Drop Due to Supply Blocks & Hesitancy: Report

After a big spurt in daily covid-19 vaccinations, it fell to 37.2 lakh doses in the week of July 5-10 from over 61.1 lakh doses in the week starting June 21 and nearly 42 lakh doses in the following week (June 28-July 4).

According to a report by Times of India, while the decline in vaccination has raised concerns, the government is expecting to maintain a daily average of 40-45 lakh doses in July with an estimated supply of at least 12 crore doses this month.

According to the report, the slowdown in vaccination is primarily because of some disruptions at Bharat Biotech’s Bengaluru plant.

Between June 25-30, the number of daily doses administered in rural areas were in the range of 9.9 lakh. However, it dropped to 8 lakh-38.1 lakh doses between July 1-9.

In urban areas, the daily doses varied from 8.2 lakh-31.8 lakh doses during June 25-30, whereas during July 1-9, around 7.6 lakh doses were given.

R value or the reproductive number or the effective transmission rate here tells how fast coronavirus spreads from one to next person. Analysed by a team of researchers, led by Sitabhra Sinha from the Institute of Mathematical Sciences in Chennai since the beginning of the pandemic in India, R value must be less than one for the pandemic to end.

According to reports published in the ‘The Print’, Sinha said India’s R value came below 1, at 0.98, around May 11 and subsequently fell to the lowest point since the beginning of the pandemic, at 0.78 around June 16 from the peak of 1.37 between March 9 to April 11.

But the R value has started rising again with eased lockdown measures and almost non-existent COVID appropriate behavior as confirmed by different media reports. An Indian Express analysis, quoting Sinha’s data, says the R value has gone up, from 0.78 to 0.88 between June 20 and July 7.

Though the R value is still below 1, it could soon cross the mark as the country fears a possible third COVID-19 next month. An SBI Research report says the third COVID-19 wave is expected to arrive in August and the COVID-19 cases are expected to peak in September.

Issuing a warning, AIIMS Director Dr Randeep Guleria has said that lack of COVID appropriate behavior means India could see the third COVID-19 wave in 6 to 8 weeks.

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