It's a decision, which defies logic and political sense. Mulayam Singh Yadav is a politician for whom you cannot even shed crocodile tears but the Congress has no explanation why it wants him out so badly.
So badly, that the Congress Working Committee which met on the evening after the Samjhauta Express blasts, dwelt a passing moment on the explosions and focused essentially on the pros and cons of enforcing President's rule in Uttar Pradesh.
Every political step is born out of a careful appraisal of gains and losses. The Congress must have done that umpteen times before it firmed up its decision on Uttar Pradesh. But if you ask who really profits from President's rule in the state, the Congress standpoint is simply inexplicable.
First, the Supreme Court decision disqualifying 13 MLAs, (Science and Technology Minister and the party's eminent legal advisor Kapil Sibal insists that the disqualification should apply to all 37 MLAs) just puts a legal stamp on what has long been perceived to be a politically immoral act. Mulayam Singh Yadav's engineering of defections from the Bahujan Samaj Party should not have been condoned or overlooked for the past three years. The question is why did the Congress not speak up then and straightaway withdraw its support. The Mulayam Singh administration has progressively gone from bad to worse in the quality of governance it provided but the Supreme Court verdict cannot be used to dislodge it on the eve of the elections. Some Congress leaders insist that the court verdict had already given a burial to the Mulayam government and they would simply be writing the epitaph. But do they realize that the ghost of an ill-conceived government can be much more dangerous and frightening than a government in the throes of death?
And that is a worry, which surprisingly, is not restraining the Congress. Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mayawati are politicians who understand the ground realities in Uttar Pradesh much better than any Congress leader does at this point of time. After Nithari and the Supreme Court disqualifying the turncoat MLAs, Mulayam Singh Yadav is up against the wall. But if his chair is taken away, he will unleash the kind of Gandhigiri that neither Raj Kumar Hirani nor Sanjay Dutt could imagine. He will make Lucknow into a political circus and may well have CPI(M) general secretary, Prakash Karat sharing the dharna dais with him. A defensive Mulayam will suddenly be on front foot and make the best use of this opportunity to turn debilitating anti-incumbency into a genuine case of political victimization and suffering.
True, Mulayam is adept at using the caretaker government for his own electoral ends. He has already made some strategic bureaucratic transfers to ensure that the right people are posted in the right districts during the polls. Congress fears of partially rigged polls are not unfounded but then the Election Commission has been doing a fine job of minimizing poll irregularities. It had overruled Left objections in West Bengal and had gone ahead with multi-phase polls. If the EC could have kept professionally trained CPI(M) cadres in West Bengal on a tight leash, why can't it be relied upon to repeat the performance in Uttar Pradesh.
There is no denying that Congress and Samajwadi Party are seeking votes from the same cross-section of the electorate and Mulayam's gains would only hurt Congress prospects. But what are the Congress' real chances in Uttar Pradesh anyway? Is the Congress seriously dreaming of capturing more than thirty of the 403 seats? The Congress brand of undefined politics has no place is caste-delineated Uttar Pradesh. The party is still a rank outsider and will require a decade of hard work before it can think of replacing the powerful caste forces at work in different parts of the Mandal-ised state.
If the Congress is aware that it has limited chances then why is it queering the pitch for the Samajwadi Party? Who stands to gain from the removal of Samajwadi Party from power? Obviously, the BSP and the third power-player in UP --- the BJP. The BSP is way ahead of others in terms of mobilizing both manpower and funds. But in a quadrangular contest why should the BSP think of a post-poll alliance with the Congress, a party that cannot deliver more than 30 seats? BJP is a far better option. The BSP strategy for growth has always been based on a cardinal principle --- a principle formulated and tried out by the late Kanshi Ram himself --- align with anybody who will give the Bahujan Samaj a position of strength. The Congress can never secure a guarantee from Mayawati that she will hold hands with Sonia Gandhi's party after the polls.
We do not yet know if the President will give his assent easily to an Article 356 proclamation. President A.P.J.Abdul Kalam has admitted in recent months that he should not have allowed himself to be swayed by Congress logic at midnight Moscow time (he was visiting Russia at the time) and agree to President's rule in Bihar. The Supreme Court criticism that followed had been a minor blow to his credibility. Of course, the Congress stands on better ground this time what with the same apex court disqualifying members and questioning the very formation of the government. There are clear indications that the President will be more careful, hold elaborate legal consultations before he finally makes up his mind.
Similarly, President's rule in UP may have other politico-legal implications in the months to come. What if the Supreme Court has reservations about President's rule? The Samajwadi Party will definitely raise constitutional questions in court. What if the court says that disqualification of MLAs and enforcement of Article 356 are two different issues and cannot be linked in the manner in which the Congress is trying to do at the moment? It will be yet another Bihar-like embarrassment for a party, which has now become synonymous with the misuse of Article 356.
A theory is doing the rounds that the Congress wants to defer the Uttar Pradesh polls and will keep elections in abeyance to ensure that UP legislators are unable to vote for the Presidential polls scheduled later this year. But isn't that a very undemocratic method of dealing with a problem? Every UP legislator carries 208 voting points in the complicated calculations for Presidential polls. Why should the legislators of the biggest state in the country be denied the right to elect the nation's next President? And the Congress is also aware that the Left might have a Presidential nominee of its own later this year. Wouldn't it be politically advisable to be more transparent and keep the Left in the loop? This theory doesn't stand scrutiny and may have been floated as part of idle speculation.
But there is one more question. Why alienate the Left further? The Congress has long been aware of the Left allergy to Article 356. After all, the late E.M.S.Namboodripad's 1957 government was the first elected government to be shown the door with the help of what the Left describes as a draconian Central weapon. Already, the Left has made elaborate plans to go for the government's jugular on the price rise issue in the budget session. Why make the Left's criticism more strident than usual? With the Samajwadi Party, the Left is close to the hundred-mark in the Lok Sabha and is not a force to be trifled with. This step is going to push the Karats and the Yechurys towards a Third Front.
There are two definite reasons why the Congress strategy has a degree of validity. You never know with Mulayam. If he is short of numbers after the coming polls, he might beg and even secure outside support from BJP and give up his carefully cultivated secular identity. The Left reposes too much faith in Mulayam's secularism but the Samajwadi Party can just argue that it was the Congress, which pushed them into taking this drastic step and that is why it had to tie the knot with the BJP.
Secondly, with reports coming in that the Congress may not repeat its 2002 performance in Punjab and Uttarakhand, the party is frightened of a BJP takeover of a major chunk of north India. And it wants to be a part of a power combination in Uttar Pradesh by hook or by crook. But the truth is not even the biggest political crook can make things happen in Lucknow the way Congress wants.
In the end, it boils down to sycophancy. There are Congressmen who have convinced party president, Sonia Gandhi that the Mulayams, Amar Singhs and Amitabh Bachchans will continue to cock a snook at her and the Congress if the Samajwadi Party is part of the next ruling alliance. It is imperative that they are evicted from power in Lucknow. As a result, the Congress policy in the country's most populous state will always be suspected of having too much intrigue, of having the unseemly appearance of a personal feud. If that is the real reason, Congress could have done without a vendetta in Uttar Pradesh.
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