Shivraj Chouhan set for third term as chief minister of Madhya Pradesh: Post-poll survey

The Lotus is all set to bloom in Madhya Pradesh once again, suggests the CNN-IBN, The Week and the CSDS post-poll survey, meaning a third straight term for Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan.

The fate of the parties for 230-member state Assembly will be decided on December 8, when the vote counting will take place. Chouhan-led BJP is set to win 136-146 seats and retain power, while the Congress is a distant second with just 67-77 seats in it kitty according to the projections made by Dr Rajeeva Karandikar, Director, Chennai Mathematical Institute. Smaller parties are expected to bag 13-21 seats. These findings are almost a replica of what happened in 2008 elections.

In the last Assembly elections the BJP had won 143 seats, Congress 71, BSP seven while others had bagged nine seats.

The BJP march is powered by a six percentage point lead in vote-share over the Congress. While the BJP is likely to get 41 per cent of the votes, which is an improvement of three per cent from the 2008 elections (37.6 per cent), the Congress too has gained three per cent from the last polls and has the backing of 35 per cent of the electorate.

The Bahujan Samaj Party is likely get nine per cent votes, the same as the 2008 elections. Other smaller parties have been the big loser, as their vote share has plunged to 15 per cent from 21 in last elections.

In the pre-poll survey in October, the BJP was projected to get 44 per cent of the votes. The Congress was way behind at 33 per cent, but the party seems to have made some gains, clawing up to 35 per cent.

The pro-incumbency sentiment has weakened a little, but is still quite high, giving Chouhan an easy path to power once again. When asked whether the current BJP government should get another chance, 48 per cent replied in the affirmative while 27 per cent were against with one-fourth did not express their opinion.

Chouhan's government also enjoys a very high satisfaction level of 72 per cent. It was even higher at 76 per cent before the last Assembly elections. The voters also rank their satisfaction level with Chouhan's work at a very high 74 per cent although it is a drop from the 81 per cent in 2008.

A look at the regional voting pattern reveals that Congress is ahead in Chambal (34 seats) and Mahakoshal (49 seats) while BJP leads in Vindhya Pradesh (56 seats) and Malwa North (63 seats). The two parties are locked in a close fight in Malwa Tribal (28 seats).

Among the rural constituencies the BJP is ahead of Congress except in

Mahakoshal and Malwa Tribal regions while both are neck-and-neck in urban seats particularly in Chambal and Mahakoshal.

The Congress has taken a big hit when it comes to party leadership with Jyotiraditya Scindia no match for Chouhan. Scindia only leads over Chouhan only among Muslim voters. Overall Chouhan is preferred by 45 per cent of the voters with Scindia getting the support of only 26.

The satisfaction level with the BJP government is at 72 per cent with an even higher number of 74 per cent voters expressing satisfaction with Chouhan as the Chief Minister which is greater than satisfaction with Manmohan Singh as the Prime Minister (54 per cent).

A total of 2,829 voters were surveyed November 26- December 1 from across 35 Assembly constituencies covering 140 polling booths. The state voted on November 25 and the results will be declared on December 8.