New Delhi: The CNN-IBN-The Hindu State of the Nation Poll, which predicts a Congress victory if elections are held tomorrow, is the best news for the party since 1991 and suggests a clear shift in the balance of power.
The survey signals that the era of rickety coalitions may end and could even create pressure on the Manmohan Singh Government to consider a snap poll.
Dealing with allies has been a tough task for the Government. The DMK, Railway Minister and RJD leader Lalu Prasad Yadav and the Left have made impossible demands from the Government.
But if the UPA Government went in for a snap poll today, things could change dramatically. The Congress could actually be close to a majority on its own according to the poll. If elections were to be held now, the Congress would get 240 seats on its own—just 32 seats short of the half way mark in the Lok Sabha.
The party has only 141 seats in the current Lok Sabha. The projected figure is very close to 1991 when post-Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination the party formed a government with 244 seats.
A CNN-IBN poll in January 2006 had given the Congress 214 seats. In fact, the new results show a clear majority for the UPA with the NDA and the BJP in particular coming worst off.
Seat projections reveal that the UPA will get 306 seats—84 more than what it got in 2004. The NDA will get 120 seats (down 69 seats) and the BJP itself will get 82, says the survey conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS).
The Left Front will get 60 seats, almost the same number as it has now.
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The encouraging news for the Congress is being attributed to a weak Opposition and the Sonia Gandhi factor. Despite her refusal to be the Prime Minister, 27.9 per cent of the survey respondents think that the Congress President is the best person for the post.
Manmohan Singh has got 12 per cent votes while former PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee has fared better by getting 18.5 per cent votes. Congress MP Rahul Gandhi got only 2.2 per cent votes.
But it’s not all roses for the Government. Respondents believe the Government has failed on inflation and unemployment and its performance in social sector and national security is regarded poor.
As many as 49 per cent respondents think that inflation is worse under the UPA. Forty-five respondents think that the farmer's condition has become worse despite the PM and Sonia's assurances and welfare schemes
As many as 36 per cent respondents think employment opportunities have reduced and 29 per cent think National Security is in danger.
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