Beyond acronyms and rhetoric, what matters is hard data. As the dust from two mega opposition meetings settles, it is time to look at some data from the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Will the much-publicised INDIA be able to bridge the gap with the NDA? It does not look all that easy to begin with.
NDA better at winning seats based on votes polled
News18 analysed the 2019 Lok Sabha data to find out winners on both sides with 50 percent of votes polled. In other words, that should indicate a decisive win and, going by that, the NDA won 241 such parliamentary seats while INDIA won just 68. The opposition alliance needs to bridge a difference of 173, come the 2024 elections.
In terms of winners with more than 70 percent of the votes, which should mean an emphatic win, the NDA had five seats while INDIA won none. When it comes to winning, where candidates get 35 percent to 40 percent of the votes polled, INDIA is ahead of NDA. Candidates of the new alliance won 88 such seats while NDA candidates won 35. However, this gap of 53 is less than the gap of 173.
INDIA lost more deposits
Losing deposits in an election is an ultimate face loss not just for candidates but more so for the political party they are fielded from. Here, losing deposits are accounted for when less than 16.66 percent votes polled were received. According to the 2019 Lok Sabha poll data, INDIA had a whopping 422 such candidates as opposed to NDA’s 130.
This is one category where smaller the number, better it is. It is a difference of 292 such candidates, in advantage of NDA. But it is important to note that this data excludes losing candidates from the NCP and Shiv Sena as their current affiliation is not yet known.
Seats with thin victory margin
As far as this data is concerned, both NDA and INDIA are almost at par. When it comes to winning seats with less than 2 percent victory margin, it is a neck-to-neck between the two – NDA’s 10 versus INDIA’s nine. When it comes to winning seats with less than 5 percent victory margin, NDA won 24 while INDIA won 15. To put things simply, a swing here and there can make these 58 seats anyone’s game next year and neither can be complacent.
Both at par when it comes to women candidates
Both the alliances did not fare exceedingly well when it comes to giving tickets to women. While NDA had 11.09 percent women candidates in 2019, INDIA parties gave tickets to 13.24 percent. But, this data excludes losing candidates from NCP and Shiv Sena once again.
The NDA, meanwhile, had 13.51 percent winning women candidates while INDIA had 13.28 percent – a wafer-thin difference.
Young blood, old hands
If it comes to giving an opportunity to young blood, INDIA is slightly better than NDA if the 2019 Lok Sabha data is taken into account. The new alliance had 20.4 percent candidates below the age of 40, while the NDA had 11.26 percent in the same category.
Similarly, when it comes to giving tickets to old hands, INDIA preferred more than NDA as it had 8.87 percent of candidates above 70 years of age. When it comes to NDA, they had 2.56 percent candidates in this category. This data once again excludes losing candidates from NCP and Shiv Sena.
So, who is ahead?
When it comes to performance in elections, data pertaining to age or demographics is of little significance as the voting share and the victory margin. And there, NDA is way ahead of INDIA.
For instance, INDIA needs to bridge a massive gap of 173 seats when it comes to those winners with 50 percent of votes polled, and that is certainly not an easy job given the election is less than a year away. While in politics, even a week is a long time; the NDA seems to be much more in control than the INDIA, which seems to know the goal but is seemingly oblivious of how to get there.
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