Finally ending all speculations, the main opposition party, TIPRA Motha, in the northeastern state of Tripura, joined the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance. As a result of this, two MLAs—Animesh Debbarma and Brishaketu Debbarma—of Motha joined the council of ministers in the Manik Saha-led BJP government. Animesh took the oath of cabinet minister, while Brishaketu took the oath of minister of state. The ruling alliance already has another constituent— the Indigenous Peoples Front of Tripura, whose only MLA, Shukla Charan Noatia, is a cabinet minister in the CM Manik Saha-led BJP cabinet.
This is a big boost for the BJP-NDA ahead of the Lok Sabha polls in the state, which has a 31 per cent tribal population. Tribal votes are crucial in the state, which has two Lok Sabha seats, including a Scheduled Tribe seat, the Tripura East constituency.
Continuation of the tradition of tribal parties aligning with the centre
The decision of TIPRA Motha to ally with the BJP is a continuation of the tradition of the state’s tribal parties to ally with the ruling party of the Centre. This started with the Tripura Upajati Juba Samiti (TUJS), considered the parent of many tribal parties, including Motha, when it first allied with the Congress in the 1983 state elections after the former was able to strike a deal with the Indira Gandhi-led Congress government at the Centre for Sixth Schedule of the Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council (TTAADC). It has to be mentioned that the then Left Front government constituted the ADC under the provisions of the Fifth and Seventh Schedule of the Constitution — and later Indira’s Congress government amended the Constitution and extended the Sixth Schedule to the ADC.
This is quite similar to the present situation. The decision of TIPRA Motha to join the NDA comes after the former signed a tripartite agreement with the Centre and the state government.
According to the agreement, a joint working group or committee would be formed to work out and resolve all issues affecting the indigenous people of Tripura relating to history, land rights, political rights, economic development, identity, culture, language, etc.
Union Home Minister Amit Shah, state’s CM Manik Saha, and Motha founder Pradyot Debbarma were present during the signing of the agreement.
The accord signed by the TIPRA Motha also has similarities with the 1988 Tripura Accord signed by the Rajiv Gandhi-led Centre with the BK Hrangkhawl-led Tripura National Volunteers (TNV), a militant outfit that mostly targeted the Bengalis of the state. Among the prominent demands agreed upon in the accord was to reserve 20 ST seats.
Later, TNV joined mainstream politics and joined the Congress-TUJS alliance for the 1990 ADC polls. This alliance with the Congress continued in the 1993 and 1998 state elections. It has to be mentioned that TNV’s Hrangkhawl is now the president of the TIPRA Motha.
The 2023 polls revealed BJP’s weakness
Now, coming to the present, the central leadership of the BJP hasn’t been much satisfied with the state unit of the party, which hasn’t been able to build a strong base in the tribal areas despite being in power for the last six years. This weak link of the party became visible first when the newly formed TIPRA Motha won the TTAADC elections in 2021 and later in the last state assembly polls.
Although the saffron party managed to return to power for the second time, it was clearly evident that had Motha not divided the anti-BJP votes in the 22 non-scheduled tribe seats, it would have been difficult for the party to cross the majority mark of 31 seats in the state assembly. The party had barely crossed the majority by winning 32 seats—a reduction of 4 seats in comparison to the state elections of 2018. The party didn’t perform well in the tribal belt of the state.
TIPRA Motha was looking for an escape route
Although, after coming to power for the second time, the BJP has been able to increase its strength in the tribal areas with many Motha supporters and local leaders joining the party, this is also due to Motha’s failure to emerge as a kingmaker in the last elections. Despite Motha becoming the main opposition party after winning 13 seats, it started to lose momentum. This is due to the flip-flops of Pradyot, from raising the demand for Greater Tipraland to later softening his stand by talking about a constitutional solution for the indigenous people and then to demand for an “interlocutor”. Motha, practically a one-man party, remained divided within itself—whether to join the BJP-led NDA or work as an opposition party in collaboration with other opposition parties like CPM or Congress. This became clear with the occasional outbursts of Pradyot against his own party leaders.
As a result of its internal confusion, the party didn’t perform properly the duty of its main opposition—it rather followed a softened approach towards the BJP government, despite some occasional criticisms.
Also, there have been allegations of Motha failing to properly run the administration of TTAADC. Although Motha had repeatedly said that the state BJP government reduced funds for the ADC, it, surprisingly, failed to launch protests on the grounds against the government.
Aware of the situation that emotional demands like Greater Tipraland—an infeasible demand given the demography of the state—can’t be exploited repeatedly over the basic demands of jobs, drinking water, food, electricity, and transport facilities to reap votes for the elections, Pradyot-led Motha has been desperately waiting for an escape route, and the BJP provided that route through the recent tripartite accord with the former.
Importantly, the accord nowhere mentions the name of Greater Tipraland, a demand on which Motha banked to raise its political capital. Though Pradyot still maintains that his party hasn’t abandoned the Greater Tipraland demand, it has become clear that for the time being, the demand isn’t the main priority for the party.
A long-term strategy of the saffron party
To rule for a long period in the northeastern state, along with the support of the Bengalis, the BJP also needs the support of the tribals. The CPM-led Left Front ruled the state for 35 years in two stints after it was able to get support from both Bengalis and tribals.
By aligning with the TIPRA Motha, the BJP wants to tame the former, which has weakened slightly but still remains a crucial force in the tribal belt. The saffron party knows that until and unless Motha remains a strong force in the tribal belt, it won’t be able to gain a strong foothold in the tribal areas.
The saffron party believes that by aligning with Motha and giving it two ministers, it will be able to send a message of goodwill to the tribal voters—that it cares about its aspirations. The saffron party is also aware that regional tribal parties in the state don’t last for a long time—one is replaced by another after a time period. When IPFT weakened after the post-2018 state elections, it was replaced by TIPRA Motha in the hills, but the saffron party failed to gain from that.
Challenges do remain against BJP’s alliance strategy
It has to be mentioned that Congress lost ground among the tribals after it started ceding space to its ally TUJS since the 1983 state elections. The grand old party didn’t gain its lost ground in the tribal belt even after adding TNV to its alliance. Importantly, Congress allied with TUJS and TNV to fight against the CPM-led Left Front. Similarly, the current BJP-IPFT-TIPRA Motha alliance also has a common enemy—the CPM.
Surely, the saffron party is following the strategy of striking alliances with the tribal parties to weaken them as part of its long-term strategy. But this strategy didn’t work for Congress in the past. Also, with TIPRA Motha joining the NDA, there has been a vacuum in the opposition in the tribal belt, and in politics, such a vacuum doesn’t last long. The CPM, although weakened, still retains a section of its support in the tribal belt.
So, the battle isn’t easy for the saffron party. If it wants to strengthen its hold in the long term, the BJP, apart from striking alliances with the regional tribal parties, also needs to cultivate mass leaders from the tribal community simultaneously. Otherwise, it may also face the same fate that Congress faced as a result of banking only on striking alliances with the tribal parties in the hills of the state.
The author is a political commentator and tweets @SagarneelSinha. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.
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