New Delhi: This is going to be the elections of the year. The assembly results of two battleground states – Tamil Nadu and West Bengal plus Kerala, Assam and Union Territory of Puducherry are going to decide the future course of Indian politics.
Assembly election in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal are important for more than one reason. The AIADMK led by Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa and the Mamata Banerjee-led TMC are trying their best to retain the power. According to ground reports the atmosphere is also looking favourable. If they succeed it will be Jayalalithaa’s fourth term in office as the Chief Minister. For Mamata Banerjee who ended the 34-year rule of the Left front in West Bengal in 2011, it will be the second term.
Interestingly both the chief ministers are women and unmarried. They are also the most popular and powerful leaders in their respective states. Together, Tamil nadu and West Bengal have 81 Lok Sabha seats. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections they swept their respective states defeating the Narendra Modi wave.
In Tamil Nadu, the DMK led by Jaya’s arch rival M Karunanidhi is struggling to put up a fight to return to power. The DMK is now led by Karunanidhi’s son MK Stalin. One of the marginal players in the state, Congress, has already returned to the DMK fold.
With the exit of former Union Minister GK Vasan, the Congress looks very weak in the state. The main opposition DMDK led by actor Vijaykanth is also likely to join the DMK-led alliance. Vijaykanth has already cold shouldered the BJP.
GK Vasan led Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC) may go with the AIADMK. Other smaller parties like Vaiko led MDMK, VCK, DK, CPI, CPM, Muslim League etc may also finally join the DMK led alliance.
Dr. Ramdoss led PMK is claiming that it will go alone. But, political analysts feel that he may also join the DMK led alliance. In that case the BJP will have to contest on its own. The BJP has almost negligible presence in Tamil Nadu.
Populist & popular CM of Tamil Nadu
Jayalalithaa has endeared herself to the masses through her populist schemes like Amma canteen, Amma mineral water, Amma medicines etc. Her handling of the recent floods, law and order, power crisis, etc., have also been appreciated.
Even though she is reportedly ill, Jayalalithaa is likely to lead the party from the front in the election. Karunanidhi’s failing health and age have forced his son MK Stalin to take charge of the party. It has angered his other son Alagiri. However, Stalin is more acceptable to the cadre than Alagiri.
In Tamil Nadu, since MG Ramachandran, no other chief minister has been able to retain power for the second consecutive term. If his successor Jayalalithaa manages that, it will be a record of sorts for the party.
2011 Assembly Election Results – Total 234 Seats
AIADMK – 150, All India Forward Bloc – 1, Communist Party Of India – 9, ommunist Party Of India (Marxist) – 10, DMDK – 29, DMK – 23, Congress – 5, MMKA – 2, PMK – 3
West Bengal:
Mamata Banerjee is looking formidable in the state. She has won every election in the state since her landslide victory in the 2011 Assembly election.
The Left Front led by the CPM has failed to arrest the slide over the years. It does not have a credible and popular face to take on Mamata.
The Congress is a distant third player in the state while the BJP which made some gains in the 2014 Lok Sabha election seems to have lost the goodwill and clout. It is going to be a direct fight between the TMC and the Left Front.
2011 Assembly Election Results – Total 294 Seats
All India Forward Bloc - 11, All India Trinamool Congress - 184, Communist Party Of India - 2, Communist Party Of India (Marxist) - 40, Democratic Socialist Party (Prabodh Chandra) - 1, Gorkha Janmukti Morcha - 3, Independent - 2, Indian National Congress - 42, Revolutionary Socialist Party - 7, Samajwadi Party - 1, Socialist Unity Centre Of India – 1.
Kerala:
Chief Minister Ommen Chandy’s Congress led UDF government is facing too many charges of corruption. However, he is still a very popular leader in the state.
The CPM led LDF is under the leadership of Pinarayi Vijayan. The CPM is hoping that the LDF will return to power as Kerala votes out the ruling party once in every five years.
But, not everything is well within the LDF. Vijayan and former chief minister V S Achuthanandan factions are fighting for the supremacy.
Chandy’ s welfare schemes have also got him some good name. If he manages to retain power, it will be a historic event in Indian politics. Just one or two percentage of votes can change the results in the state.
2011 Assembly Election Results – Total 140 seats:
CPI – 13, CPI-M – 45, Congress - 38, Janata Dal (Secular) JD(S) – 4, Kerala Congress (Jacob) – 1, Kerala Congress (M) (KCM) – 9, Kerala Congress (B) KEC(B) – 1, Kerala Revolutionary Socialist Party(Baby John) (KRSP) – 1, Muslim League Kerala State Committee (MUL) – 20, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) – 2, Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) – 2, Socialist Janata (Democratic) (SJD) – 2, Independent – 2.
Assam:
Congress’ longest serving chief minister Tarun Gogoi has completed three consecutive terms in the office. He has been the chief minister for the past 15 years. Every attempt to unseat him by his rivals within the party has been failed by a shrewd Gogoi.
His one-time close aide Himanta Biswa Sarma is now with the BJP. The BJP has nominated its Union Minister Sarbananda Sonowal as its chief ministerial candidate.
The AGP has now joined the BJP led alliance to retain its relevance in the state. On the other hand perfume ‘king’ Badruddin Ajmal’s AUDF has decided to go alone in the polls.
Assam has a very high number of Muslim votes and the Congress is hoping that this factor can help the party.
2011 Assembly Election Results – Total 126 seats
All India Trinamool Congress - 1, All India United Democratic Front – 18, Asom Gana Parishad – 10, BJP – 5, Bodoland Peoples Front – 12, Congress – 78, Independent – 2.
Puducherry:
The 30 member Assembly of Puducherry is also going to polls along with the four states. Chief Minister N Rangaswamy, who left the Congress, won the Assembly elections on his own in 2011. His party AINR Congress is fighting to retain the power. Currently he is considered the most popular leader in the state.
2011 Assembly Election Results – Total 30 seats
AINR Congress – 15, Congress – 7, AIADMK – 5, DMK – 2, Independents – 1.
The dates for polls are :
Assam: Two phases
First phase: 65 constituencies
Date of poll: April 4, Monday
Second phase: 61 constituencies
Date of poll: April 11, Monday
West Bengal: Six phases
Two polling dates in first phase
18 constituencies in first date of polling
Date of poll: April 4, Monday
31 constituencies to vote on second polling date
Date of poll: April 11, Monday
Second phase: 56 seats
Date of poll: April 17, Sunday
Third phase: 62 constituencies
Date of poll: on April 21, Thursday
Fourth phase: 49 seats
Date of poll: April 25, Monday
Fifth phase: 53 constituencies
Date of poll: April 30, Saturday
Sixth phase: 25 constituencies
Date of poll: May 5, Thursday
Kerala: 140 Assembly constituencies
Date of poll: May 16
Tamil Nadu: 234 Assembly constituencies
Date of poll: May 16
Puducherry: 30 Assembly constituencies
Date of poll: May 16
Counting of votes: May 19
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