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New Delhi: Valsad, Ankaleshwar, Olpad, Surat East, Surat West and Navsari are all situated in different, disparate parts of Gujarat and yet, they have something in common. These seats are Gujarat's 'bellwether seats'. These are seats that have, for the last few decades, had the habit of correctly predicting the winner of state assembly election.Valsad
Ankleshwar assembly constituency is located in Bharuch district. Ishwarsinh Thakorbhai Patel from is BJP is the sitting MLA. He has been winning elections from 2002 onwards while BJP's Narendra Modi and Vijay Rupani formed governments in the state. Patel Ratanjibhai Balubhai was the MLA in 1995, when Keshubhai Patel was CM from March 14 to October 21, 1995. In 1985 Nathubhai Narotambhai Patel from Indian National Congress had won while Madhav Singh Solanki was the chief minister.Olpad
In 1985, Mahendrabhai Ratanjibhai Patel from INC became the MLA from Olpad in Surat district by winning the election by 39,520 votes. This coincided with a Congress win across the state, which saw Madhavsinh Solanki become Chief Minister. In 2002, Patel Dhansukhbhai Nathubhai from BJP won the seat by getting 74,572 or 44.47% of votes, which was accompanied by Narendra Modi's rise to the CM’s post. In 2007, BJP's Kiritbhai Patel became the MLA from this seat and in 2012 Mukeshbhai Patel, also of the BJP, won.Navsari
One of the oldest cities in Gujarat, which finds mention even in Greek historical writings, Navsari is an important South Gujarat seat that has proven to be a bellwether. When in 1995 Patel Mangubhai Chhaganbhai from BJP won with 58,346 - 55.93% votes beating Talavia Kanjibhai Dhediabhai from INC who got 43,884 or 42.06%, the state saw Keshubhai Patel became the chief minister. Chhangabahi continued his victory against Congress till 2007. In 2012 Piyushbhai Dinkarbhai Desai of the BJP won with 81,601 votes and Narendra Modi became the chief minister.Surat East and Surat West
In 1985, the constituency of East elected Mahaswetabahen Jashwantsinh Chauhan from INC as its MLA, and Surat West elected Babubhai Sopariwala as the MLA. That year Madhav Singh Solanki from the Indian National Congress was the chief minister. In the year 1995, both the constituencies elected BJP MLAs and BJP's Keshubhai Patel became the chief minister. From September 19, 1996 to October 23, 1996 the state was under President’s rule. Rashtriya Janata Party formed the government in the state from 1996 to 1998. From that year onwards, BJP continued to rule the state till and the twin constituencies of Surat East and West sent BJP MLAs to the Assembly.
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