Thiruvananthapuram: Kerala is one state where the Left Democratic Front (LDF) is hoping to have some advantage in the 2014 elections, but the political climate in the state is not completely in support of either the Communist Party of India-Marxist-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) or the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF).
Political experts state that both sides are equally discredited and this year can be completely different from the last two Lok Sabha elections. In 2004, the CPI (M) and CPI won about 15 out of the 20 Lok Sabha seats and the seats received for the UDF was through its allies. In 2009 it was the opposite as the LDF managed only four seats.
The CNN-IBN Lokniti survey has projected that if elections are held in January the UDF is expected to win about 12-18 seats and the LDF will bag about 2-8. But there are other surveys that project the UDF to win only about nine seats and the rest for the Left Front.
Political analyst BRP Bhaskar said that both sides stand discredited.
Revolutionary Marxist Party leader TP Chandrashekarans murder verdict can play spoil sport for the Left as a large section of the people believe that CPI (M) was behind the murder. Another disadvantage for CPI (M) will be their new found friendship with the workers who Left BJP in Kannur.
This move can backfire in the elections as CPI (M) always projected them as fighting against communal forces. In the last elections their move to join hands with PDF had backfired.
He added that over a period of time the image of LDF has suffered. The people cannot find much of a distinction between the two fronts now. In the last two assembly elections the VS Achuthanandan factor played a major role in increasing the vote share of CPI (M).
The Congress is also not any better off this time. The fifth minister row had long lasting damage to the UDF. As a result of the row the UDF was seen to be soft to both the Muslim and Christian minority but not to the majority Hindu community.
The price hike of essential commodities and the solar scam has also to an extent alienated the people from the UDF government.
Meanwhile, the parties and the political analysts seem to agree that the AAP and the BJP will not be able to mark their presence and win a Lok Sabha seat from the state.
BRP Bhaskar said that the Keralites are not really open to the Hindutva agenda and that can bee seen as a reason why a majority of them are keeping them away from BJP. Narendra Modi has managed to have the interest of a small percentage of youngsters, but how much of this can be turned into votes is doubtful.
V Muraleedharan, state president of the BJP, said that they will definitely improve their performance compared to the last Lok Sabha elections. At least some section of the people understood that there is not much difference between the Congress and the Left, and BJP has been raising this issue for long, he added.
The vote share that AAP manages will depend on their candidates who contest the Lok Sabha elections but so far from the state has not received a prominent leader.
CPI (M) Politburo member MA Baby said that the activities undertaken by AAP are those which the Left has been doing for ages without much fanfare. He added that their leaders like EMS Namboothiripadu and VS Achuthanandan has been leading such a simple life style. He added that even the AAP couldn't point out if any of our leaders are corrupt. He was confident that they might encroach upon the votes of the Congress or of other forces but not of LDF.
The major issues that will be raised for campaign by the Left includes price hike of essential commodities, diesel, petrol, LPG, pro-corporate policies and the solar scam. To combat this UDF will be speaking about the developments made by the Central and state governments.
On the contrary the UDF will be raising the issue of TP Chandrashekaran murder and SNC Lavlin corruption case against Pinarayi Vijayan. The CPI (M) will be holding the view that both these cases are politically motivated and the UDF Government is trying to falsely implicate them.
The KPCC spokesperson Pandalam Sudhakaran said that their election campaign will be focusing mainly on the achievements and developments under the UPA and the Oommen Chandy government. The highlight will be Chief Minister Oommen Chandy's mass contact programme and this initiative has benefitted a large number of people.
Sudhakaran added that the induction of KPCC president Ramesh Chennithala into the Cabinet as home minister has rejuvenated 'I' faction of the Congress and even the public are seeing this as a positive sign. Both fronts are confident of improving their performance in the previous elections.
The Congress was almost sure that they would retain the Thiruvananthapuram constituency with Shashi Tharoor, Union minister of State for Home contesting from here again. But the mystery surrounding the death of his wife Sunanda Pushkar has cast some doubts and even inside the Congress some have voiced their reservations on his candidature.
However, Pandalam Sudhakaran said that no other names have come out so far other than Tharoor's as a contestant from Thiruvananthapuram. He said, "It is a sure seat for us, even now if he contests the people will stand by him. What happened was a personal matter and the people will understand it."
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