Kolar Dare: Siddaramaiah’s Resurrection in Karnataka Congress or Waterloo Moment? EXPLAINED

“I have decided to contest from this constituency, subject to approval from the high command. Nobody needs to have any doubt about this," said a smiling former Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, as he stood among thousands of cheering and clapping supporters in Karnataka’s Kolar.

Located 80 km from Bengaluru city, Siddaramaiah finally put to rest the speculations regarding his candidacy for the seat.

WHY KOLAR?

This assembly constituency has a good mix of Dalits, Muslim and Kuruba voters and is considered a safe seat for the Congress and Janata Dal (S), where the people have always elected a JDS or Congress representative. In the Lok Sabha election, the constituency sent a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate to Parliament.

Siddaramaiah enjoys the support of the AHINDA — Alpasankhyataru or Minorities, Hindulidavaru or Backward classes, and Dalitaru or Dalits – and is projected as the strongest leader of this group. He also belongs to the Kuruba community, which constitutes the third largest caste group after the Lingayats and Vokkaligas in Karnataka.

“In Kolar, Muslim voters are a major deciding factor, along with a large number of backward class communities. These are two major factors," explains political analyst Bhaskar Rao.

Siddaramaiah told this reporter in an earlier interview that many Congress workers and senior leaders of the party have been requesting him to contest from Kolar, and he finally yielded.

Kolar is also a safe seat for the Congress and is held by MLA K Srinivas Gowda, who was expelled from the JD(S) for cross-voting in the Rajya Sabha election and is now with the Congress. He has vacated this seat for the former CM.

TWO SEATS?

In the previous assembly election, the 75-year-old Congress veteran had contested from the Badami Assembly seat in Bagalkot district and Chamundeshwari in Mysuru. He won the Badami seat by a narrow margin of 1,696 votes and lost Chamundeshwari to his strong rival G T Deve Gowda of the JD(S). Gowda won the seat by a huge margin of 36,042 votes.

Congress insiders tell News18 that like the 2018 assembly polls, Siddaramaiah may contest from two seats. “There is a chance he may contest from Varuna (Mysuru) or Chamarajpet (Bengaluru) as well. But the final decision rests with him," a senior former Congress minister told News18 on condition of anonymity.

Speaking to News18 in November last year, Siddaramaiah had said that he will not contest from Chamundeshwari or Badami in the 2023 elections.

In Badami, Siddaramaiah managed to win with a wafer-thin majority. Determined not to give Siddaramaiah a walkover, the BJP had fielded B Sriramulu, who is now Karnataka’s Transport and ST welfare minister and a close associate of the powerful Reddy brothers of Ballari. Sriramulu stood against Siddaramaiah, even though he was already contesting from the Molkalmuru seat near Ballari.

“I have not been able to give adequate attention to my constituents in Badami. I am 75 years old and although I have a lot of energy left in me, the distance between Badami and my residence in Bengaluru is a lot. I have not been able to regularly go there. It is only fair that I decide on a seat that I can visit regularly and give my full attention," he told this reporter.

Chamundeshwari was a seat that Siddaramaiah claimed “gave him a rebirth in politics". It is the seat that he contested from in the 2006 bypolls, after he was expelled from the JD(S) by the party supremo and former prime minister HD Deve Gowda. The JD(S) supremo gave Siddaramaiah a tough fight, yet the latter managed to win by a margin of 257 votes.

Subsequently, Siddaramaiah contested from then newly-formed Varuna constituency in the 2008 and 2013 elections and won both with a hefty margin. He, however, vacated it to accommodate his son Dr Yathindra in the 2018 assembly polls. It is learned that Yathindra has offered the Varuna seat to his father this time, but Siddaramaiah is yet to take a call.

NOT A CAKEWALK

In the build-up to the elections, Siddaramaiah decided to visit Kolar in the swanky new bus that has been designed to help him travel the length and breadth of the state. Addressing a public meeting then, the leader had told the gathering that he “will come back" when he plans to file his nomination, an indication of his plans, his confidants say.

However, political analysts believe Kolar will not be a cakewalk for the former Congress CM who will be walking straight into a faction-ridden Kolar Congress. Former speaker and Srinivasapura MLA K Ramesh Kumar and seven-time MP and Congress stalwart KH Muniyappa are at loggerheads. It is learned from Congress sources that Muniyappa believes that Kumar was responsible for his loss in the previous election.

Political analyst Ramakrishna Upadhyay said: “Siddaramaiah, being a former CM, has never cultivated any consistency consistently. He is shifting his constituency for the fourth time in his career which shows his nervousness even after being projected as the Congress’s CM candidate. Varuna would have been safer, but he doesn’t want to sacrifice his son’s budding political career. Given the factionalism in the Congress, he can’t take victory from Kolar for granted either."

“Muniyappa is still seething inside and he had even complained to the Congress high command on how Siddaramaiah supporter Kumar spoiled his chances and toiled to ensure he loses in Kolar," said a Congress source.

The high command is said to have pacified the former Union minister, saying they are unable to take any serious action against Siddaramaiah as he continues to be a strong leader among the voters of Karnataka, the source added.

However, another Congress leader said that Muniyappa has been taken into confidence by party leaders and has agreed to work to help bring the Congress back to power in the southern state.

“If Muniyappa supports him, he has a chance," said Chambi Puranik, who served as a Professor of political science at Mysuru University and has been observing Siddaramaiah’s political career for the past five decades.

“At first, Muniyappa may welcome him in the interest of the party, and help the Congress win more seats, as he would believe a victory is more respectable than a defeat. But Siddaramaiah does have as many enemies as well-wishers. He should be aware that Muniyappa and other leaders, who are angry with him, may even plan Kolar as a political Waterloo for him," Prof Puranik said.

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