The third Covid-19 wave could hit Maharashtra within the next two to four weeks, the state task force has warned in a grim reminder for the state which was battered by the second wave of the pandemic.
The task force, however, said children would not be affected as much as those in lower middle-class clusters that haven’t been exposed to the virus so far.
The predictions were made in a meeting chaired by Maharashtra Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray, the Times of India reported, with data pointing to the fact that the total number of cases in the third wave could be double of those in the second wave, with active cases reaching eight lakh.
It is also expected that 10% of the cases could come from children or young adults, a phenomenon also seen in the first two waves.
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Stressing on the need to practice Covid-appropriate behaviour, Dr Shashank Joshi, member of the task force, said the state could face the same situation as UK where a third wave hit within four weeks of ebbing of the second wave.
On a conservative estimate, epidemiologists expect up to 100 days between the peaks of two waves or eight weeks from the decline of one wave to the next peak.
Maharashtra has seen a five-level unlock model in the past two weeks, with over 15 districts and some cities like Nagpur and Pune enjoying some relaxations. While Mumbai and its suburbs, including Thane, Vasai-Virar, Kalyan-Dombivali, will all be divided, the remaining 34 districts are being treated as separate, single administrative units. Those districts and cities that are put in level 1 (with less than 5% weekly positivity rate and less than 25% occupancy rate of oxygen beds) are free of all restrictions.
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A senior official said in the meeting that uncontrolled crowds and disregard for Covid norms such as wearing masks and social distancing were “worrisome”. He added that there was a reduction in number of tests which means several cases could go undetected.
The task force was also of the opinion that the lower middle class would be hit the hardest in this wave since they escaped the virus in the first two waves or have depleted antibodies.
Thackeray told the meeting that the country would receive 42 crore vaccine doses and the state would benefit from it as the task force stressed on the need to aggressively vaccinate the population to reduce mortality.
In the first wave, the number of patients was highest at 3,01,752 on September 13, 2020, while it was 6,99,858 on April 22 this year during the second wave of COVID-19, the release said.The weekly positivity rate was 23.53 per cent on September 9, which was the highest in the first wave, and it reached 24.96 per cent on April 8 this year, officials said.
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