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India is unlikely to double-vaccinate all 94 crore adults against Covid-19 by the end of 2021, but the government will make that many vaccines “available” for all of them by then, senior government officials told News18.
More than 74 crore adults have received the first dose so far, 35 crore people have got the second dose and total vaccinations stand at over 109 crore. Around 188 crore vaccine doses are ultimately needed for all adults.
“Availability of the vaccine is not an issue. We have even started exports. People will have to come forward to take the vaccine which is already very much available for them. Also, big states that are lagging need to do much more. The Centre has already launched the ‘Har Ghar Dastak’ programme for door-to-door vaccination to spruce up efforts,” a government official said.
Another senior official said more than 20 crore vaccines were already lying un-utilised in stock with states and private hospitals. “Nearly 16 crore vaccines are in stock with states. Another 4 to 5 crore vaccines are in stock with private hospitals. So in total, after 109 crore jabs have been given, a total of 130 crore jabs have already been made available,” the official said.
A back-of-the-envelope calculation shows nearly 54 crore doses are expected to arrive in November and December (44 crore of Covishield and 10 crore of Covaxin) besides the vaccine stocks of Zydus Cadila and Biological E.
So India will have 188 crore doses required to fully vaccinate all adults by December 31, 2021.
The official added that no country has been able to achieve 100% saturation in vaccination and there was an 84-day gap in both doses of the Covishield vaccine. So even if India is able to give first doses to the balance 20 crore people between now and December 31, they will have to wait for their second dose till 2022.
“The second dose will remain work in progress in 2022. But the substantial adult population, perhaps even up to 90%, will get the first dose by the end of the year,” another senior government official has told News18.
A third government official claimed India will touch 150 crore vaccinations by the end of 2021, which he said will be “near the saturation levels”. He said there will be people who will not take the jabs despite best efforts due to vaccine hesitancy.
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