India is expected to experience above-average rainfall and increased flood risks during the monsoon season starting in June, as conditions favor the emergence of the La Nina weather phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean in the next few months.
The US-based Climate Prediction Centre of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted a 49% chance of La Nina forming between June and August, with higher confidence for its development in subsequent months, following strong El Nino events.
“La Niña generally tends to follow strong El Niño events, which also provides added confidence in the model guidance favoring La Niña. In summary, a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely in the next month. La Niña may develop in June-August (49% chance) or July-September (69% chance),” the NOAA said.
During previous La Nina occurrences, experts note a consistent trend: heightened rainfall in India during the monsoon months. However, they caution that this increase in precipitation also raises the risk of excessive flooding in certain regions, Hindustan Times reported.
In contrast, while an El Nino event typically brings a harsher summer and a weakened monsoon to India, La Nina presents a different scenario. It’s associated with a robust monsoon, above-average rainfall, and colder winters across the subcontinent.
On April, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced its prediction of above-normal rainfall for the 2024 monsoon season, forecasting that more than 80 percent of the country would receive over 87 cm of rain from June to September.
This marks the first time in eight years that the IMD has forecasted “above normal” rains for India. The agency stated that above-normal seasonal rainfall was “very likely” for most parts of the country, except for certain areas in the northwest, east, and northeast regions where below-normal rainfall was “very likely.”
According to the IMD, India is expected to receive 106 percent of the long-period average rainfall of 87 cm, compared to the 96 percent predicted last year.
What is La Nina?
La Nina is one of the two extremes of a recurring climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean, alongside El Nino, and it can significantly impact global weather patterns.
In Spanish, La Nina translates to “Little Girl.” It’s also known by other names such as El Viejo, anti-El Nino, or simply “a cold event.”
According to NOAA, La Nina refers to the periodic cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. These cooling events typically occur every 3 to 5 years, although sometimes they can happen in consecutive years. La Nina represents the cool phase of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.
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