Homework | Rahul Gandhi Skirts ‘PM Candidate’ Debate in London, But ‘United Oppn Kingdom’ in 2024 is Easier Said than Done

“That’s not even up for discussion…that’s a distraction and I don’t want to get into it.” This is how Rahul Gandhi skirted a question in London on whether he will be the Prime Ministerial candidate in 2024 against Narendra Modi. For the ‘larger opposition unity’, for which Gandhi made a strong case in the same discussion, this seems to be a good start.

Because for most opposition parties, Gandhi has not been acceptable as the ‘PM face of the opposition’ and that in some measure also stopped a larger opposition ‘coordination’ in the 2019 general elections. It saw PM Modi coming back with an even bigger mandate than his maiden 2014 win.

Many in the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), in fact, see Gandhi as their ‘asset’ if projected as the challenger to Modi.

Gandhi says the key to “do very better” in the elections next year is that the opposition comes together with all its might to defeat the BJP. He even hinted at a surprise soon on this front. Senior Trinamool Congress (TMC) leader Derek O’Brien, in a piece in ‘The Indian Express’ titled ‘How To Defeat the BJP in 2024’, has said that the opposition must convert Lok Sabha poll into an aggregate of state elections and let those parties take the lead in states where they are strong.

But this may be easier said than actually done.

THE FIVE STATES TEST

Let’s take the case of five big states with 230 Lok Sabha seats out of the 543 seats in all.

Sample this: Will the Congress take a backseat in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar where 120 Lok Sabha seats are at stake, and let the Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Janata Dal United (JDU) contest nearly all seats? The Congress only holds two Lok Sabha seats in these two states currently.

Will the Congress surrender its space in West Bengal to the TMC, where the former holds only two of the 42 Lok Sabha seats? Or, in Maharashtra’s 48 seats, where Uddhav Thackeray and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) are the major players and the Congress has just one seat.

What will happen in Kerala where the Congress and Left are adversaries? Will the Left cede space to the Congress, which holds 15 of the 20 Lok Sabha seats? The Left and Congress alliance has failed in the recent Tripura assembly elections.

Any ‘larger opposition’ unity first needs to succeed in these five big states before becoming a model for the country.

Gandhi seems to be aware of such challenges. In London, he conceded that “there are individual states that work differently”, but said there were a lot of conversations over coordination which were going on. “There are tactical issues that require discussion…some states (are) very simple, some states (are) slightly more complicated. But the opposition is very much capable to resolve this,” Gandhi said.

Senior Congress leaders have already rubbished the theory that the Congress could contest only on about 200 Lok Sabha seats in the next elections and leave the rest for opposition partners. Some like Kamal Nath and Bhupesh Baghel have already said Gandhi is perfect as the PM face. Gandhi said in London that every opposition party agreed with the central idea of his ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra’, but opposition leaders like Akhilesh Yadav and Nitish Kumar skipped attending it.

RAHUL’S CASE

Gandhi, meanwhile, claimed in London that there is an “undercurrent of anger” against the Modi government and said unemployment, concentration of wealth and price rise are the issues on which the “larger opposition” should contest the next general elections. “The opposition in India is no longer fighting a political party, but we are fighting the institutional structure of India now, as we are fighting the BJP and Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), which has captured all of India’s institutions and there is no more level-playing field. In India, institutions are not neutral. We are fighting institutions and the RSS-BJP,” he said.

Senior BJP leaders mock at the talk of larger opposition unity, pointing to various earlier attempts where opposition leaders joined hands at various stages, only to go their separate way when the elections came to guard their turf. Many opposition players have already pointed to the Congress’s falling fortunes to say it can’t lead an opposition anymore and the likes of K Chandrashekhar Rao and Nitish Kumar trying to play the lead role in rallying opposition forces.

So how will Gandhi handle such big egos and regional satraps?

“That is Mallikarjun Kharge’s job now! I will tell him my view, the actual work will be done by the Congress president,” Gandhi said, in London.

Meanwhile, the BJP sits smug, trusting in the popularity of Narendra Modi against the opposition unity ‘mirage’.

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