Tamil Nadu politics has undergone a dramatic change. Never before in the history of the state — which repeated either Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) or All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), Karunanidhi or Jayalalithaa – the clout of two police officers as arch-rivals has been witnessed.
Should DMK be scared of these two former IPS officers?
The Union Home Minister, Amit Shah, briefed the two former IPS officers in 2021, before they were assigned to Tamil Nadu, that a foundation is laid and a base is created for an anti-DMK and Hindutva nationalism narrative. Real-time political leaders in the Opposition space like AIADMK, Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK), and Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) are all relegated.
Tamil Nadu is now blamed for serial blasts and religious conversions and the National Investigation Agency (NIA) raids are taking place in the state daily. A few are accusing that the drug trade has become rampant. A sorry state of affairs in Tamil Nadu politics is that there is no effective Opposition to go on the offensive against the ruling DMK dispensation. Tamil Nadu politics — which was ridden with the Dravidian ideology — is now shrinking, whereas the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is trying to capture the space of Jayalalithaa.
DMK AND ITS 18-MONTH ADMINISTRATION
In the past 18 months, the Tamil Nadu ruling party was engaged in an anti-Centre and anti-Modi narrative. State finances are in a precarious situation as no major foreign direct investments have come into the state. There are frequent clashes with the Centre to claim the GST taxes. Recently, big industrialist group TATA’s chairman Natarajan Chandrasekaran held a meeting with Chief Minister MK Stalin and assured the state of huge investments. Interestingly, few DMK ministers murmur why Stalin kept his son Udhayanidhi in the meeting in 2023 while in 2022 when the same TATA Chief Chandrasekaran met MK Stalin and the son-in-law V Sabareesan participated in high-level discussions, Opposition parties questioned this dynasts’ control over the DMK and the government. DMK, the ruling party, has ‘fixed alliance partners’. The party has a progressive alliance with the Congress Party, VCK, MDMK and both the communists. Unfortunately, these Opposition parties are not serving the cause of voters. Recently, Rahul Gandhi-led Bharat Jodo Yatra began from Tamil Nadu but it failed to create a political impact.
RAJINIKANT-KAMAL HAASAN CINEMA DOMINATION
Rajinikanth refused to float a political party. But Kamal Haasan was at the forefront and fought the DMK in the 2019 Assembly polls. However, in 18 months, Kamal Haasan’s party Makkal Needhi Mayyam (MNM) did not make any progress. A new trend in the Tamil cine world is the emergence of Vijay. The tinsel world is projecting Vijay as a challenger to superstar Rajinikanth. But even in the cine world, there appears to be a challenge — that Vijay will not follow DMK’s dictum.
WHO IS THE SUPERSTAR? RAJINI OR VIJAY?
A public debate is on about who is the superstar.
Tamil superstar Vijay has emerged as the most popular Tamil male star in the latest survey conducted by media consulting firm Ormax Media. He’s followed by Ajith Kumar, Suriya, Dhanush and Vikram. The twin pillars of Tamil cinema — Kamal Haasan and Rajinikanth — feature in the list too. However, they hold the 8th and 10th positions in the top 10 list. Vijay’s films have consistently created new records at the Tamil Nadu box office. He’s one of the few superstars who can guarantee minimum success for all the stakeholders in the value chain. Vijay has political ambitions too, unlike Rajini but similar to Kamal Haasan.
Recently, Kamal joining the Bharat Jodo Yatra created a controversy in the state. The reason is that he is trying to form an alliance without the DMK as is being promoted by Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) party leader Thol Thirumavalavan. Tamil Nadu elected 38 MPs for the DMK alliance out of 39. But what did the 38 MPs do to get a major project for the state of Tamil Nadu? The answer is disappointing.
AFTER JAYALALITHAA, AIADMK IS SPLIT INTO FOUR
The sad commentary on the AIADMK is that Tamil Nadu has no main Opposition. Intense fighting amongst senior AIADMK leaders, on a caste basis, is weakening the party. In 18 months, a split has taken place into four groups. All four are claiming the two leaves election symbol of the AIADMK and are afraid of openly challenging the DMK. These four groups are separated by their caste combinations, such as Thevars, Gounders and sub-castes. The Opposition space vacuum is now being taken over by the BJP.
The two IPS officers in Tamil Nadu
The two former IPS officers are — Ravindra Narain Ravi, the Governor of Tamil Nadu, a Bihari and a former sleuth in the Intelligence Bureau in New Delhi and K. Annamalai, the President of Tamil Nadu Bharatiya Janata Party and a 36-year-old former IPS officer who resigned from service in 2019 to contest the Tamil Nadu State Assembly elections.
Ravindra Narain Ravi is sitting on 25 bills passed by the Tamil Nadu Assembly. And interestingly, the same R N Ravi is all set to address the Assembly session on January 9. He will read the script adapted by the MK Stalin Council of Ministers. He is also propagating Sanatana Dharma and temple worship in the land of Dravidian culture which is opposed to the majority.
K. Annamalai is spearheading the fight against the DMK. He is all set to undertake a padayatra in April to cover all 234 Assembly and 39 Lok Sabha constituencies, to strengthen the BJP.
WRISTWATCH CONTROVERSY
Annamalai is embroiled in a controversy over his wristwatch which is of Rafale make and reportedly costs lakhs. He bravely handled this charge and said that he is ready to upload the receipt on his website. He also went to the extent of saying that the wristwatch will be auctioned and the money fetched from it will be donated to the Chief Minister’s natural calamity relief fund. But Annamalai put a rider — Can Udhayanidhi Stalin, the son of Chief Minister MK Stalin, be ready to do the same with his wristwatch, which is much costlier than his?
Why these two illustrations were highlighted? The reason is simple. To explain that no implementation of major projects nor attraction of investments is there.
Rating of DMK and its rule in Tamil Nadu
MK Stalin won a landslide victory in 2021 to capture the Tamil Nadu Assembly. People’s verdict was so clear that a slight edge for MK Stalin at the time of polls turned into a massive victory. The DMK party made tall claims in their manifesto — such as a reduction in diesel prices, abolition of the NEET exam and Rs 1000 cash for every woman voter — knowing that they will not be able to fulfil them. The DMK is struggling to keep up its assurances and needless to say, the voters are disgruntled. The administration is crumbling due to internal strife in the party. Family politics with the elevation of Udhayanidhi as minister is the new twist. Crime is at its peak. Even the DMK MPs were put in jail by the courts. Last week, a former DMK MP, Masthan, was murdered.
SCENARIO FOR 2023 and 2024
The political scenario is fragile. The PMK party, which dominates the Vanniyars in 6-8 districts in Tamil Nadu is now planning to leave the AIADMK alliance and switch over to the DMK alliance. In that case, the DMK will of course welcome them with a big hug but will lose Dalit votes, with the possible exit of the VCK party. Obviously, the VCK will have to cross over to the AIADMK. But to which group — Edappadi K. Palaniswami’s or O. Panneerselvam’s? The DMK is also going soft on Centre.
Is it a fact that MK Stalin is adopting the styles of Jagan Mohan Reddy and Mamata Banerjee? His meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in November 2022 is said to be a turning point. Stalin also openly admitted that his health was fragile and his party leaders’ daily press statements were worrisome and those utterances were not giving him proper sleep. Such open statements make the DMK cadre think that Udhayanidhi is all set to take control of the party and slowly he will be elevated as Deputy Chief Minister. Whichever side one may look at or argue, MK Stalin has positioned his son Udhayanidhi at centre stage for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
And, in simpler terms, that is Tamil Nadu politics.
The writer is a political analyst. Views expressed are personal.
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