A lot has been said and speculated about the post-May 2 scenario and its impact on the grand old Congress party. Those claiming to speak on behalf of the G-23, or a group of dissenters, expect a ‘lot of fireworks’ within the Congress if the party fails to wrest Kerala from the Left or edge out the BJP-led NDA regime in Assam. A section of the party feels Rahul Gandhi may look for a non-Gandhi nominee, such as Ashok Gehlot, Bhupesh Baghel, K.C. Venugopal or Mukul Wasnik for the top post. Yet another group thinks May 2 and beyond would see the emergence of a powerful and involved Priyanka Gandhi Vadra.
The imaginary narrative of Priyanka Gandhi as an alternative to Rahul Gandhi is flawed and lacks basic understanding of the Congress. It needs to be emphasised again and again that the entire logic of Priyanka’s presence in politics and the Congress is due to Rahul Gandhi. The Gandhi siblings can and would work as a pair, regardless of what happens on May 2. Similarly, Priyanka’s future elevation would have Rahul’s blessing.
Why Bengal Matters
On the face of it, these scenarios appear both convincing and plausible, yet away from reality. The May 2 verdict of the five Assembly polls in Assam, Bengal, Kerala, Puducherry and Tamil Nadu will indeed have a crucial bearing on the Congress and on the national polity. But a lot would depend on the big picture. The Congress’ internal dynamics, for instance, would paradoxically, hinge upon how the rival BJP or Narendra Modi–Amit Shah performs. The return of the BJP in Assam and its alliance-backed victory in tiny Puducherry would not rattle the political leadership of the Congress, currently owned by the Gandhis, as much as the outcome in Bengal.
Bengal is critical. Ironically, the Congress may be a virtual bystander in the titanic battle being fought in Bengal but its outcome will affect Rahul-Sonia Gandhi-led Congress. If Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress is humbled and ousted, a minor exodus from the Congress will become a near certainty. It will be an indication of the deep crisis of confidence, expiration of secular-liberal ideology and a realization that nothing, absolutely nothing, works against Modi-Shah—be it hands on, shrill approach of Mamata Banerjee, clamour for regionalism, sub-nationalism, or a broad alternative to the Modi-Shah-led BJP. The Gandhis would turn mute spectators.
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On the other hand, Mamata’s return would help the Gandhis live another day. Modi-Shah’s failure to dislodge Mamata would be so telling that Gandhis would be able to escape the blunder of failing to win back Kerala or remove Sarbananda Sonowal regime in Dispur. Clubbed with the likely victory of the DMK-led alliance in Tamil Nadu (where the Congress is a junior partner), the focus on regional leaders, namely Mamata Banerjee and M.K, Stalin’s ability to take on the BJP, would have a potential to force Gandhis to lean more on the TMC and DMK leadership.
Battle for 2024
Congressmen of all hues and shades have an understanding that if Mamata Banerjee or any regional leader is to be pitched for 2024, Sonia Gandhi is best equipped to get them a good deal whenever any fruits of the labour materialize. Sonia Gandhi alone has the flexibility to stoop, bend and negotiate from a firm position. Sonia, Rahul and Priyanka are not seen as power wielders but trustees of power. A member of the Nehru-Gandhi family has not been a minister since 1989.
This is not to say that there will not be any dramatic scenes and hiccups. Some Congress leaders, including G-23 groupies, would be looking at Maratha strongman Sharad Pawar with hope and expectation. Pawar is seen as a person capable of doing some business with the victors, Mamata and Stalin, and attempts to sideline the Gandhis.
However, Pawar’s reported meeting with Amit Shah at the Ahmedabad residence of a business tycoon has undermined the Maratha leader’s stature within the non-BJP-NDA formations. Pawar is increasingly seen as a man trying to protect his interests within Maharashtra rather than outside. The possibility of the NCP ditching the Maha Vikas Aghadi alliance in Maharashtra and teaming up with the BJP in Maharashtra may be negligible, but it has created a doubt in the minds of those who were counting on Pawar to attempt checkmating the Gandhis. The big question is whether Fort George (Mumbai) would fall once the BJP gets control of Fort William (Kolkata).
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