The war is likely to resume, although the world is tired of military invasion and military presence in Afghanistan. The withdrawal of the US troops from Afghanistan and from the largest military base in Bagram shows their frustration; they are tired of killing Afghans. They had no solution to the problems of Afghans. These problems have often led to the use of violence, that involved foreign actors.
The Taliban still have many challenges ahead: gaining global legitimacy, getting off the Security Council blacklist, establishing an inclusive government, allowing freedom of expression, women’s rights, and so on. These are issues that must be addressed.
Although the West can have good relations with dictatorial, imperial, Communist, and any other kind of government in the world, these relations are guided by the West’s interests. In many cases, they do not even pursue their own slogans and values. They do not care which government comes to power in Afghanistan. Repeating the mistake of the Bonn Conference and monopoly power have been the main factors that have contributed to conflict in Afghanistan for decades now.
In the last 20 years, several mistakes have been made–encouraging monopolies and corruption; a regional distrust of the Western military presence in Afghanistan; proxy wars in the country and the lack of tact among officials to prevent it, among others. Ashraf Ghani completed the defeat of two decades by fleeing, but all officials played an important role in this failure; the structure had problems since the beginning.
The West could not succeed in Afghanistan despite its strong military and global support. In the case of the Taliban, this support will not be available so no doubt it will be a challenge for the new government. Today, many countries are eyeing the opportunity to make the most from the differences among Afghans–they do not have to spend much here. However, bear in mind that these countries will not consider supporting an opposition.
The departure of tens of thousands of people from the country shows that there is no trust. The outflow of capital and cadres can break the back of any country. Everything depends on the global legitimacy of the future government and the support of the powers-that-be for Afghanistan.
Until the last day, Ghani and government officials did not even form a qualified delegation for peace talks, which shows that they were more convinced about a military solution; one day they escape, upsetting the whole equation.
We have seen people fearing government structures, and we have seen the use of violence in the last 20 years. Afghans could have the same fear with respect to the current government–that they may be harmed again. But it all depends on the support of other countries to Afghanistan.
The region understands if there is peace in Afghanistan, the whole region will develop and there will be stability; but if there is war, the whole region will suffer.
The author is the son of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, an Afghan politician and a former mujahideen leader. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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