The numbers game in the No Confidence Motion (NCM) moved against Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan has transcended simple addition and subtraction and is now dependent on various permutations and combinations. Simple math would make the No Confidence Motion a slam dunk for the opposition parties and their supporters on the treasury benches of Pakistan’s National Assembly. But politics, and all the slime, grime and crime that is often associated with it, complicates the math.
Reaching the magic number of 172 requires cutting deals, making Faustian bargains, resiling from agreements, appealing to both base instincts and a higher calling, massaging egos, repairing broken relations and breaking some relations. In short, ‘saam, daam, dand, bhed’ all come into play, as indeed they are in Pakistan.
How the Numbers Stack Up
On paper, Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) with 155 Members of National Assembly (MNAs) is facing off three main opposition parties which together also have the same number – Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PMLN) (84), Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) (56), and Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) (15). The entire numbers game revolves around the smaller parties, some who are coalition partners, and others who are with the opposition. The PTI cobbled together a majority with the help of Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) (7), Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) (5), Pakistan Muslim League-Q (PMLQ) (5), Sindh-based Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA) (3), Jamhoori Watan Party (JWP) (1), two Independents, and Awami Muslim League (1). But now the tables have turned.
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The big three opposition parties have the support of Balochistan National Party (BNP) (4) and Awami National Party (1) taking their tally to 159. The JWP and one Independent (Mohsin Dawar of Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement and now the new political party National Democratic Movement) taking their tally to 161. The two Independents who were earlier supporting PTI have switched sides, making the opposition tally 163. The BAP too has decided to support the No Confidence Motion taking the number to 167 – one BAP MNA is sticking to the government. There are reports that at least one GDA member will vote with the opposition and one PMLQ member, former cabinet minister Tariq Bashir Cheema, has also decided to vote against Imran, taking the number to 169.
If the Speaker issues the production order for the incarcerated PTM MNA Ali Wazir then the opposition reaches 170. Another MNA from PPP is currently out of the country because he faces a murder case and will most likely be arrested by the PTI government and not allowed to vote. If his vote is included, the number reaches 171. Reports suggest that the MQM has cut a deal with the PPP and will go for the No Confidence Motion, taking the opposition past the magic number even without Ali Wazir and the absconding PP MNA’s vote. Even if MQM splits, the opposition wins.
The opposition suffered a bit of a hiccup when PMLQ leader Pervez Elahi, who was all set to jump on to the opposition bandwagon, switched sides back to the government side. It is rumoured that Imran Khan sweetened the deal for him by not only making him chief minister of Punjab but also withdrawing the cases against his son, Moonis Elahi. But this volte face has caused problems within the PMLQ ranks with the party patriarch, former prime minister Shujaat Hussain, feeling let down by his cousin Elahi. Shujaat’s son and nephew who are also MNAs were more inclined to go with the opposition because they saw a political future by moving closer to the PMLN which is expected to sweep the elections in Punjab.
If Shujaat gives a free hand to the 5 MNAs of PMLQ then instead of just Cheema’s vote, the opposition could get at least 2, if not 3, votes more, taking their tally to 180. Pervez Elahi might actually have shot himself in the foot by going back to Imran Khan because the chances of him managing to cobble together a majority in Punjab assembly is virtually non-existent. The PTI has at least 3 dissident factions in Punjab who will not vote for Elahi. And if the NCM goes through and there is a change in Islamabad, then there is no way Elahi will get to run Punjab.
The MQM has still not announced which way it will go but it stands to gain the most by casting its lot with the opposition and cutting a deal with PPP in Sindh. Reports are that PPP leader Asif Zardari has pulled out all stops to woo the MQM which had a pretty good run under the PPP government from 2013-18. Zardari has not only offered the governorship of Sindh to MQM, but also a share in the provincial cabinet and a local bodies law that will give MQM a chance to run both Karachi and Hyderabad. The PTI on the other hand treated MQM shabbily and kept squeezing it.
But there appears to be a split view in MQM and it is possible that some members might stick to PTI while others will go with the opposition. MQM and PPP make a natural alliance because their constituencies don’t overlap. On the other hand, MQM lost its dominance in Karachi at the hands of PTI which emerged as the biggest party in MQMs bastion. At the same time, PPP and MQM have to manage their relations because even though their constituencies are different, their constituents aren’t exactly fond of each other. (PS: MQM has ratified the agreement with the Opposition and its two ministers have resigned from the government.)
In Sindh, the GDA has 3 seats. One MNA, former Speaker of National Assembly Fehmida Mirza, will stick with PTI because of bad blood between her husband and Asif Zardari. They were both childhood friends, almost blood brothers, until they fell out a few years back. But the other two could go with the opposition, especially if the GDA head Pir Pagara who is related to PPP leader and former Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani decides to support the Opposition.
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It is Curtains for Imran Khan
The above numbers game doesn’t include the defectors – rebels who are not ready to support Imran Khan anymore, in part because they were mistreated and ignored, in part because they don’t see a future in PTI (which is expected to be wiped out in the next election). If the defectors cast their vote with the opposition, the votes in favour of NCM will cross 200. There are anything between 24-30 rebel MNAs from PTI. Most of them have already struck their deals for tickets in the next elections from PMLN, PPP and JUIF (MMA).
Imran Khan has issued a whip barring any PTI member from attending parliament on the day of the No Confidence Motion. He has threatened that anyone who violates this order will be considered a defector and de-seated. But this is an empty threat because constitutionally legislators can only be de-seated if they vote against the party whip in a vote of confidence, no-confidence and a money bill. In any case, de-seating is not done by the Speaker but by the Election Commission of Pakistan, which has a month to take the decision. There is however a danger that Imran Khan could forcibly prevent some of the dissident members from voting against his government.
Cut to the chase, it is curtains for Imran Khan and all his dramatics of an international conspiracy will fall flat. The writing on the wall is clear: Imran Khan is going down and it will take more than a miracle to save him. Former Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani had once said that he didn’t want to become Prime Minister because Pakistan’s sordid history is that people go straight from PM House to Adiala Jail. It will be interesting to see if Imran Khan keeps up the tradition once he is unceremoniously booted out.
Sushant Sareen is a senior fellow at Observer Research Foundation. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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