Bihar elections: Neck-and-neck in the second phase, Jitan Ram Manjhi's popularity faces a tough test

A former Bihar chief minister battling for survival, an area which has been a Naxal hotbed and witnessed several bloody caste wars - this basically sums up the second phase of Bihar Assembly elections in which 32 of the 243 seats will vote on October 16. In the second phase, seven seats are reserved for Scheduled Castes and will test the popularity and vote catching ability of Bharatiya Janata Party allies Ram Vilas Paswan of the Lok Janshakti Party and Jitan Ram Manjhi's Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular).

If the going for the parties was tough in the first phase, it has got tougher in the second phase. Several seats are witnessing extremely close battle and the destiny of several big names are at stake.

Both the Mahagathbandhan of Janata Dal United, Rashtriya Janata Dal and Congress, and the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) which also has LJP, HAM and Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) are in a neck-and-neck battle.

When the JDU and BJP were in alliance in 2010, the former had won 19 seats while BJP emerged triumphant in 10. Lalu Prasad's RJD won two and Independent one. Now JDU and RJD have put up candidates in 13 seats each and the smaller partner Congress is contesting the remaining six.

In this phase BJP is contesting 16 seats and its allies are in the fray in other 16. Jitan Ram Manjhi's HAM on seven seats, LJP has candidates in three seats, RLSP six.

One of the most prominent names in the fray is that of former Bihar chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi, who is contesting from Makhdumpur and Imamganj seats. Manjhi was the CM for nine months but quit JDU to form his own party after Nitish Kumar decided to come back. He is contesting the Makhdumpur seat in Jehanabad district against RJD’s Subedar Das, and is pitted against Bihar Assembly Speaker Uday Narayan Chaudhary of the JDU in Imamganj.

Though Manjhi is the incumbent MLA from Makhdumpur, he last won it on a ticket from the JDU, which is now contesting in alliance with the RJD. The parties that are part of the Mahagathbandhan have had a strong base in the constituency, thereby posing trouble for the former CM.

In Imamganj, Manjhi faces a formidable rival in JDU’s Uday Narayan Chaudhary who has won the seat on five occasions and is also the incumbent MLA. Many in the region believe that the caste combination is such that it’s divided evenly between the two leaders. Those in majority are Koeri, Muslim and Yadav, and this can tilt in favour of the Mahagathbandhan.

However, the Pathan section of the Muslims apparently does not share a good rapport with Chaudhary in the Naxal-infested region. Some of the voters suggest that the Pathan vote may go against the JDU leader.

But if previous statistics are taken into account, Chaudhary has never won the seat with a margin of more than 3000-4000, thereby suggesting that Manjhi, keeping into account his political aura post his stint as the Bihar CM, may have a chance.

Another strong battle is being witnessed in the Bodh Gaya seat, where incumbent MLA Shyamdev Paswan of the BJP has a new rival in the form of RJD’s Kumar Sarabjit. The Bodh Gaya seat has two major areas – Fatehpur and Bodh Gaya town. While Paswan hails from Fatehpur, he is considered by many as “an outsider”.

He is also blamed for lack of development in the constituency by many. The other factor swinging in favour of the RJD candidate is the reputation earned by his father, who has been politically active in the region.

However, the demography of the constituency may play a major role in the constituency with Bodh Gaya comprising five panchayats and Fatehpur consisting of more than 10. Muslim presence in the area will also play a role in deciding the fate of the two leaders.

One of the biggest seats going to polls on Friday is Gaya town, which has been the stronghold of BJP leader Prem Kumar, who has been winning the seat since 1990. But one cannot ignore the popular resentment in the region over lack of development work in the area.

With his supporters claiming he is a strong CM candidate if NDA comes to power, Prem Kumar may have a tough election this time against Priya Ranjan alias Dimple of the Congress. According to insiders, Prem Kumar may just clinch the seat with a narrow margin, thanks to the trader votebank and the caste equation marginally bending in his favour. The Chandrvanshi vote in the area is, however, expected to favour the Congress candidate.

Jehanabad is another major centre voting on Friday. Many believe that the RJD may have a strong chance here in the absence of a strong rival. There was tussle among the NDA constituents over this constituency during seat sharing, and it eventually went to the RLSP, which fielded a young leader, Praveen Kumar against RJD’s Mundrika Singh Yadav.

The denial of seat to the LJP by NDA leaders irked Gopal Sharma, a strongman in the area, who decided to contest as an independent. This faction in the NDA is expected to work in favour of the Mahagathbandhan.

While caste is expected to play a decisive role in the second phase, one cannot deny that the resentment over lack of development work in some constituencies will impact the fate of several leaders in fray.

with about 85.8 lakh voters eligible to exercise their franchise, the fate of 456 candidates will be known only on November 8. the seats are spread across six districts - Gaya, Aurangabad, Jehanabad, Arwal, Kaimur and Rohtas - and most of the 8,849 polling booths are in rural areas.