The Bharatiya Janata Party will hold on to the reins of Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa, and Manipur, while the Aam Aadmi Party will dethrone the Congress in Punjab, exit polls indicated on Monday.
The predictions came on a day the final round of voting ended in the seven-phase elections of UP, considered a bellwether of the national mood, with the Lok Sabha polls to be held in 2024. The counting of votes for the assembly elections in the five states will take place on March 10.
While the BJP-led alliance may get fewer seats this time in Uttar Pradesh compared to its landslide win in 2017, a victory will be a shot in the arm for the government led by chief minister Yogi Adityanath who has contested his first MLA election, after managing key challenges faced by his administration in India’s most populous state, particularly of the Covid pandemic and law enforcement.
A victory in Punjab for AAP, which is also in power in Delhi, will give the party an opportunity to implement its governance model in a full-fledged state for the first time. The Congress may be left licking its wounds after failing to quell fierce infighting in time.
Uttarakhand and Goa may see close contests, the exit polls suggest, but the BJP appears to have the edge in both states, while it seems to be on course for a win in Manipur, where News18 reports from the ground had indicated voter sentiments in favour of the ruling party for curbing bandhs and insurgency to a significant extent and initiating development projects.
A 4-1 scoreline will buoy the BJP in the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and will force its rivals to dig deeper for newer strategies to halt its electoral juggernaut.
Uttar Pradesh
Even as BJP leaders have been predicting a sweeping victory in Uttar Pradesh with over 300 seats, according to Matrize Poll, the alliance headed by the ruling party will retain power with 262-277 of the 403 assembly constituencies. The Samajwadi Party-led coalition, with 119-134 seats, will close the gap compared to its 2017 drubbing. Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party will get 7-15 seats, while the Congress, which has been hoping to make a significant comeback, will bag just 3-8.
The exit poll of P-Marq has given 240 seats to the BJP-led alliance, 140 to the SP’s coalition, 17 to the BSP, which at one point seemed to have given up without a fight, just 4 to the Congress, and 2 to Others.
According to Polstrat, the BJP’s alliance will bag 211-225 seats, the SP-led bloc will end up with 116-160, the BSP will get a significant 14-24, and the Congress about 4-6.
The ETG Research exit poll predicts more seats for the BJP-led coalition, 230-245. It gives the SP’s alliance 150-165 seats, the BSP 5-10, and the Congress and Others 2-6 each.
The exit poll by Jan Ki Baat too foresees a comfortable victory for the BJP-headed bloc, with 222-260 seats. The SP-led alliance will net 135-165 seats, it says, while giving 4-9 to the BSP, 1-3 to the Congress, and 3-4 to Others.
Axis My India comes close to the BJP’s own prediction, giving its coalition 288-326 seats, followed by the SP’s coalition with 71-101, the BSP with 3-9, Others 2-3, and the Congress 1-3.
Today’s Chanakya foresees 294 seats going to the BJP’s bloc, 105 to the SP-headed alliance, 2 to the BSP, and 1 each to the Congress and Others.
The Poll of Polls prediction, thus, is the BJP-led alliance retaining power in UP with 238-258 seats, the SP’s bloc getting 128-148, the BSP 8-16, and the Congress 3-7.
Punjab
A stunning victory for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is on the cards in Punjab with the dissension-hit Congress on its way out, exit polls have predicted.
Axis My India gives 76-90 of the 117 seats to AAP, with the Congress falling far behind at 19-31. It predicts 7-11 seats for the Akali Dal-led alliance and 0-2 for Others.
ETG Research also foresees an AAP sweep with 70-75 seats, while it estimates 23-27 for the Congress, 7-13 for the Akali Dal-led coalition, 3-7 for the BJP-headed alliance.
According to Jan Ki Baat, AAP gets 60-84 seats in Punjab, Congress 18-31, the Akali Dal’s alliance 12-19, and the BJP-led bloc 3-7.
AAP gets 70 seats in the Veto exit poll, with the Congress at 22, closely followed by the Akali Dal-led coalition at 19, the BJP’s alliance at 5, and Others 1.
The P-Marq exit poll predicts 62-70 seats for AAP, 23-31 for Congress, 16-24 for the Akali Dal’s bloc, and 1-3 each for the BJP-led alliance and Others.
Today’s Chanakya gives a whopping 100 seats to AAP in Punjab, followed by the Congress with a mere 10, the Akali Dal-headed coalition 6, and the BJP’s bloc just 1.
Polstrat predicts a more conservative 56-61 seats for AAP, 24-29 for the Congress, the Akali Dal-led alliance not far behind with 22-26, and the BJP’s coalition 1-6.
The DesignBoxed poll is in a similar range, giving 52-61 seats to AAP, 26-33 to Congress, 24-32 for the Akali Dal-led alliance, 3-7 for the BJP’s coalition, and 1-2 for Others.
The Poll of Polls forecast is of AAP coming to power in a full-fledged state for the first time, with 59-75 seats, followed by the Congress with 24-32, the Akali Dal’s alliance 13-19, and 2-6 for the BJP’s coalition.
Uttarakhand
It’s an uphill battle for the BJP to retain power but it may just have its nose ahead in Uttarakhand that historically does not give the ruling party a second consecutive term, exit polls show.
Jan Ki Baat gives 32-41 of the 70 assembly seats to the BJP, 27-35 to the Congress, 0-1 to AAP, and 0-4 to Others.
DesignBoxed predicts a Congress victory with 35-40 seats, followed by the BJP at 26-30, Others 3-6, and AAP 0.
CVoter too has estimated the elections in favour of Congress with 32-38 seats, with the BJP at 26-32, Others 3-7, and AAP 0-2.
The BJP is ahead in Veto’s exit poll with 37 seats, Congress gets 31, and AAP and Others 1 each.
Today’s Chanakya estimates an emphatic victory for the BJP with 43 seats, even as the Congress gets 24, Others 3, and AAP 0.
ETG Research gives 37-40 seats to the BJP, 29-32 to the Congress, 0-2 to Others, and 0-1 to AAP.
P-Marq too foresees a BJP victory with 35-39 seats, followed by the Congress with 28-34, and AAP and Others with 0-3 each.
In the Axis My India exit poll, the BJP pushes ahead with 36-46 seats, the Congress gets 20-30, Others 4-9 and AAP 0.
The Poll of Polls prediction, thus, is a slim victory for the BJP with 31-39 seats, followed by the Congress with 26-34, Others 1-6 and AAP 0-1.
Goa
A close contest is also predicted in Goa with the possibility of a hung assembly that would leave options open for various political machinations once again.
Jan Ki Baat has given the Congress’s alliance 14-19 of the total 40 seats, with the BJP breathing down its neck at 13-19, Others at 4-8, and AAP 1-2.
The Veto exit poll gives the Congress-led coalition a slight edge at 16, the BJP 14, Others 6, and AAP 4.
CNX, though, puts BJP ahead with 16-22 seats, followed by the Congress’s alliance with 11-17, Others 5-7, and AAP 0-2.
P-Marq’s exit poll has the BJP and Congress-led coalition neck and neck, with 13-17 seats for both, 2-6 for AAP, and 2-4 for Others.
So, the Poll of Polls prediction is of a photo finish with the BJP and Congress’s bloc both getting 16-20 seats, Others 4-10, and AAP 1-3.
Manipur
The DesignBoxed exit poll predicts a comfortable victory for the BJP in Manipur with 32-38 of the 60 assembly seats, while the Congress gets 12-17, the NPP, which was being seen as the dark horse, nets 2-4, and Others 2-5.
P-Marq gives the BJP 27-31 seats, the Congress 11-17, the NPP 6-10, and Others 5-13.
In the Jan Ki Baat exit poll, the BJP bags 23-28 seats, the Congress 10-14, the NPP 7-8, and Others a significant 12-18.
The BJP ends up with 26-31 seats in the CNX poll, followed by the Congress with 12-17, the NPP 6-10, and Others 7-12.
The Poll of Polls outcome is the BJP retaining power with 29-33 seats, the Congress getting 12-16, the NPP 6-8, and Others 7-11.
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