The BJP has claimed it will win all eight seats — Pilibhit, Saharanpur, Kairana, Muzaffarnagar, Rampur, Moradabad, Nagina, and Bijnor. But analysts say an examination of public issues, agendas, caste equations, and polarisation tells a different story. “In seats like Pilibhit, Saharanpur, Kairana, and Muzaffarnagar the Samajwadi Party-led alliance seems to be in a promising position. Of these, barring Saharanpur, the BJP won the other three seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha Polls,” said Shashikant Pandey, head of the department of political science, Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar University, Lucknow. Pandey said the BJP has also worked on Rampur, Moradabad, Bijnor, and Nagina — the four seats it lost in the previous polls. However, the competition is tough in these constituencies as well.
The Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party has sprung a surprise as it is fighting on a strategy to save its core voters and try to capitalise on the discontent among Thakurs and Tyagis against BJP, said Pandey.
The BSP’s strategic selection of candidates across various constituencies in Uttar Pradesh underscores its nuanced approach to caste dynamics in the state, he said.
“In Ghaziabad, Gautam Buddh Nagar, and Meerut, they’ve fielded Rajput and Tyagi candidates. In Muzaffarnagar, the party has tapped into the Most Backward Classes (MBCs) by nominating a Prajapati candidate against the BJP’s Sanjeev Balyan. In Bijnor, an influential Jat candidate challenges the Gurjar pick of the Rashtriya Lok Dal, while in Baghpat, a Gurjar candidate counters the RLD’s Jat choice. Aligarh saw a surprising move with a Brahmin candidate, a BJP defector, positioned against Satish Gautam, reflecting the BSP’s manoeuvre to disrupt caste equations. This calculated selection strategy extends to Mathura, where the BSP is making strategic choices in candidate selection to navigate complex caste dynamics and electoral challenges,” pointed out Pandey.
In the 2019 general elections, the BJP clinched just three of the eight seats: Pilibhit, Kairana, and Muzaffarnagar. The Samajwadi Party emerged victorious in Moradabad and Rampur, while the Bahujan Samaj Party secured Saharanpur, Bijnor, and Nagina. This distribution illustrates a diverse electoral landscape in Uttar Pradesh, with different parties asserting dominance in various constituencies, observers said.
Rampur
Over the past decade, the Samajwadi Party’s stronghold, led by Azam Khan, has witnessed an intense push from the BJP. In 2014, BJP’s Dr Naipal Singh made history by winning the seat by over 3.58 lakh votes and a 37.5% vote share, the first non-Muslim to do so. However, in 2019, SP’s Azam Khan secured a victory with over 5.59 lakh votes and a 52.7% vote share. Following Khan’s disqualification due to a three-year imprisonment sentence related to a 2019 hate speech case, the BJP reclaimed the seat in the 2022 bypolls. This oscillation underscores the fierce rivalry between the SP and the BJP in this crucial constituency. The SP this time has fielded Mohibullah Nadvi, the BJP has picked Ghanshyam Singh Lodhi, and the BSP has nominated Zeeshan Khan.
Moradabad
The constituency, dubbed Pital Nagri, has witnessed the pendulum swinging between the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) over the past decade. In 2019, the SP’s Dr ST Hasan secured a victory with over 6.49 lakh votes and a vote share exceeding 50%. In 2014, the BJP’s Kunwer Sarvesh Kumar emerged triumphant, clinching the seat by a margin of over 4.85 lakh votes and a vote share of 43%. This fluctuation highlights the competitive dynamics between the SP and the BJP in this constituency in recent years. The SP has now fielded Ruchi Veera, the BJP has given a ticket yet again to Kunwar Sarvesh Kumar Singh, and the BSP has opted for Irfan Saifi.
Kairana
The Lok Sabha constituency in Shamli district has been a stronghold of the BJP since 2014, except for a setback in a 2018 bypoll. In 2014, BJP’s Hukum Singh secured a victory here with over 5.65 lakh votes and a 50.6% vote share. However, the 2018 by-election, triggered by Singh’s demise, saw RLD’s Tabassum Hasan defeating the late MP’s daughter Mriganka Singh, who ran under the BJP banner. Nonetheless, the BJP reclaimed the seat in the 2019 elections, with Pradeep Choudhary emerging victorious by garnering more than 5.66 lakh votes and a 50.4% vote share. The SP this time has fielded Iqra Hasan, the BJP has picked Pradeep Choudhary again, and the BSP has given its ticket to Shripal Rana.
Pilibhit
The constituency, located in the Bareilly division, has been a bastion of the “BJP’s Gandhis” since 2014. In 2019, Varun Gandhi won the constituency with a record 7.04 lakh votes and commanded a massive vote share of 59.4%. Samajwadi Party’s Hemraj Verma was a distant second with more than 4.48 lakh votes. In 2014, Varun’s mother Maneka Gandhi won the seat with more than 5.46 lakh votes and secured a vote share of 52.1%, defeating Samajwadi Party’s Budhsen Verma. This time, the BJP has fielded Jitin Prasada, Bhagwat Saran Gangwar is the SP candidate, and the BSP has fielded Anis Ahmed Khan.
Muzaffarnagar
The Lok Sabha constituency, with approximately 16 lakh voters, has been in the BJP’s bag since 2014. In the 2019 general elections, union minister Sanjeev Balyan narrowly triumphed over late RLD chief Ajit Singh here. Balyan secured over 5.73 lakh votes and a 49.5% vote share, while Singh garnered more than 5.67 lakh votes with a vote share close to 49%. In 2014, Balyan’s victory was resounding, defeating BSP’s Kadir Rana by a staggering margin of over 4.3 lakh votes. Balyan clinched more than 6.53 lakh votes with a commanding vote share of 59%. The SP has now fielded Harendra Singh Malik from here, the BJP has reposed faith in Sanjeev Balyan once more, while the BSP has picked Dara Singh Prajapati.
Saharanpur
The seat has changed hands many times over the years, from the Congress to Janata Dal, and others. In 2019, BSP’s Haji Fazlur Rahman secured a victory here with over 5.14 lakh votes and a 41.7% vote share. He was followed by BJP’s Raghav Lakhanpal, who garnered 4.91 lakh votes. This electoral trend underscores the evolving dynamics and the BSP’s growing influence in the constituency, marking a departure from previous political equations. The BJP has fielded Raghav Lakhanpal again, the BSP has picked Majid Ali, while the Congress has opted for Imran Masood.
Bijnor
Over the past decade, the constituency, encompassing five assembly seats, has witnessed a transition from the BJP to the BSP. In the 2019 elections, BSP’s Malook Nagar emerged victorious here, securing over 5.56 lakh votes and a 51% vote share. In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, BJP’s Kunwar Bhartendra Singh clinched the seat with more than 4.86 lakh votes and a vote share of 45.9%. The SP has now given a ticket to Deepak Saini, the RLD has fielded Chandan Chauhan, and the BSP has picked Chaudhary Vijendra Singh.
Nagina
In 2019, BSP’s Girish Chandra won here by unseating BJP’s Yashwant Singh with over 5.68 lakh votes. Singh remained a close second with more than 4 lakh votes. This contest marked a shift in the electoral dynamics of the constituency reserved for Scheduled Castes. In the 2014 general elections, Singh had triumphed here, garnering more than 3.67 lakh votes and a vote share of 39%. The BJP candidate this time is Om Kumar, the SP has nominated Manoj Kumar, while the BSP has fielded Surendra Raj Singh.
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