Seventeen months of crumbling law and order situation, multiple rigorous surveys across seats showing an increasing influence of RJD in rural areas, strengthening of M-Y (Muslims and Yadav) factors, effects of the caste survey, an effort to reap the ‘undivided’ benefit of Ram Mandir in the Hindi heartland, and taking the prime mover away from the Opposition alliance – the BJP has more than one reason to get Nitish Kumar back in its fold, even if it means giving him his pound of flesh. The hard bargain is on. For the BJP, it is a game of optics, a war of perception.
A flip-flop in Bihar politics will bring BJP two things. One, it will bring out ‘the inefficacy’ of the INDIA bloc, which may in future make a voter think twice before opting for a coalition government in general elections. Two, Nitish Kumar’s exit from the alliance, which he was so keen to work on and stitched from scratch, will also look like a statement on Rahul Gandhi, said a senior BJP leader, based out of Patna.
The BJP will be able to prove that Gandhi could not manage two of his most important eastern allies – Trinamool Congress and JD(U) – that are in power in two important states with 82 Lok Sabha seats, explained the leader.
OBC-EBC Factors
Apart from that, the political equation is Bihar keeps revolving around its crucial M-Y factors. Yadavs constitute around 15-16% of the state’s total population, while Muslims have a vote share of around 17-18%. Together, Muslims and Yadavs are considered the determining factor in Bihar. Following the caste survey, Bihar is the only state to have official data for castes.
The OBC and EBC (Extremely Backward Class) come across as another crucial factor in the state. If the BJP can have JD(U) on its side, it can have certain advantages of the caste-chemistry that dominates elections in Bihar. The rainbow coalition of OBC-EBC-Upper Caste can work in further consolidation of Hindus votes.
Senior BJP leaders in Bihar feel that the party would not lose anything if Nitish Kumar returns to the NDA. “The BJP has nothing to lose in this situation. Voters will see Nitish Kumar as a politician who keeps jumping ship. We can have an extra layer of electoral fortune if Nitishji can transfer the OBC and EBC (Extremely Backward Caste) votes on the NDA sides. The seat tally may rise,” said a senior BJP leader.
Despite Nitish Kumar’s changing equations with political parties, he has a reputation of bringing a structure in the law-and-order system and police administration. There were instances of violence, including murders of police officers while on raids in Bihar after Nitish Kumar joined hands with RJD in August, 2022.
“This is another advantage. People want peace and security. This can only be stable if Nitish Kumar stays the Chief Minister in an NDA government,” said another BJP leader.
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