As Cyclone ‘Yaas’ likely to intensify further into a ‘Very Severe Cyclonic Storm’ in the next 12 hours – astrophysicist, disaster management experts and Calenderologist are expressing concern that it may exacerbate the situation due to full moon and lunar eclipse on May 26.
The full moon will begin at 08.29 pm on May 25 and it will end at 04.43 pm on May 26. The same day, the lunar eclipse in India will be visible at around 2.17 pm and will end at 7.19 pm. This will be the first lunar eclipse of 2021.
As it is known that during a full moon, the sun, earth and the moon come in a straight line and it causes heavy gravitational effects on our planet. This gravitational effect usually causes a swell in the ocean/ rivers and causes abnormal high tidal waves (than normal days). Now the experts fear that if the timing of landfall ‘Yaas’ clashes with the timings of the full moon and lunar eclipse then it will trigger the tidal waves and devastation will be much higher.
Speaking to the News18, Director of the MP Birla Planetarium, Debiprasad Duari, said, “Yes, it is true that the Cyclone Yaas’s effect will be more if the landfall happened during the full moon and lunar eclipse timings.”
He said, “It is certainly going to trigger the tidal waves tomorrow. These tides are known as ‘spring’ tides or high tides because of the additional surge in the water due to the Cyclonic effect.”
A professor of Saha Institute of Nuclear Physics and a well-known Calenderologist, Professor Chandan Majumdar, corroborated the same and expressed similar concern.
He said, “It will have a monstrous impact because at the time of landfall if there was high tide in the river then it will trigger the waves and the mud embankment will not be able to sustain the pressure. It will also fail to prevent seawater from entering the agricultural land.”
Cyclone ‘Yaas’ is likely to wreak havoc in parts of South 24-Parganas and East Midnapore in West Bengal.
As per the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Cyclone ‘Yaas’ is expected to make landfall between Paradip in Odisha and Sagar islands in West Bengal on May 26 as a ‘very severe cyclonic storm’ with a wind speed of 155-165 kmph gusting to 185 kmph, causing heavy rainfall in coastal districts of West Bengal and Odisha.
In Bengal, areas close to Digha, Tajpur and Mandarmani in East Midnapore and the coastal stretch of Odisha including Balasore, Bhadrak, Kendrapara, Jajpur, Jagatsinghpur and Mayurbhanj are likely to be worst affected due to ‘Yaas’ as the landfall could be close to Balasore in Odisha.
Unlike Cyclones ‘Aila’, ‘Bulbul’ and ‘Amphan’ which claimed more than 350 lives in Bengal and Bangladesh in May 2009, November 2019, May 2020 respectively, ‘Yaas’ is more powerful with a radius of 700 km.
During Cyclone ‘Aila’ and ‘Bulbul’ in Bengal, there was low tide and therefore damage to agricultural land was less. But this time, it is expected that there will be high tides and nearly 3 lakh farmers are likely to be affected due to large-scale devastation in parts of East Midnapore and in South 24-Parganas.
East Midnapore is known for large scale rice cultivation and it is the season for the farmers to cut their paddy. Many already started cutting their paddies due to fear of the Cyclone but many farmers are unable to do so because their paddy will take a few more weeks to be ready to cut.
There are 5,18,076 (approx) hectares of gross cropped area in East Midnapore and 3,70,540 (approx) hectares of paddy lands in the districts. Many felt that Cyclone ‘Yaas’ will have irreparable damage to the farmers.
The Director of Tagore Society for Rural Development (TSRD), Dipankar Roy, said, “There won’t be much loss of lives but property damage will be higher. As per my estimation, farmers will suffer the most because this Cyclone will destroy their farm fields and also due to high tide salt water will enter the agricultural land. Once saltwater will enter the farmland, then it will be of no use for the coming few years.”
He said, “Since the radius of the Cyclone is nearly 700 km, it may have some impact in Sundarbans too, which is having nearly 3,500 km of the river shore. The agrarian economy of Sundarbans is mainly based on a rice farming system, where farmers mostly practice a rice-rice-fallow system throughout the year. But due to ‘Yaas’, lakhs of farmers are likely to lose their farmland.”
The former member of the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Prof Chandan Mazumdar, said, “Let me explain in simple words why the full moon will certainly aggravate the situation during Cyclone ‘Yaas’ tomorrow. Due to the full moon and lunar eclipse, sea or river water surges abnormally due to the gravitational pull. Now imagine, if the landfall happened at the time of full moon timing, then the impact (wind speed) of ‘Yaas’ will blow the river or seawater onto the coast. This will lead to coastal flooding and will destroy moveable and unmoveable properties.”
Meanwhile, 10 additional National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) teams were deployed in West Bengal. Total 45 teams deployed in the State, and the floating aviation and ashore units/assets of NDRF, Indian Coast Guard (ICG), Indian Army were mobilised and put on high alert and have been deployed in the Bay of Bengal and Andaman sea.
West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee extensively reviewed the disaster management preparedness with all senior officers of Central and State agencies along with the District Magistrates and Superintendents of Police.
Around 8.30 am, ‘Yaas’ was about 280 km south-southeast of Paradip in Odisha and 380 km south-southeast of Balasore (Odisha), 370 km south-southeast of Digha (West Bengal) and 370 km south-southwest of Sagar islands (West Bengal).
As per the latest IMD report, the Cyclone ‘Yaas’ will reach Northwest Bay of Bengal near north Odisha and West Bengal coasts very close to Chandbali-Dhamra port by early morning on May 26. It is very likely to cross north Odisha-West Bengal coasts between Paradip and Sagar Island close to the north of Dhamra and south of Balasore during noon on May 26 as a very severe cyclonic storm.”
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