The Congress is all set to host the second meeting of the Opposition leaders in Bengaluru on July 17-18.
Invites have gone out to all parties that attended the June 23 meeting in Patna, including the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).
The Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP had skipped the Patna joint press conference and shot off a letter, indicating that until the Congress and 31 Rajya Sabha MPs denounce the “ordinance", which gives the Centre authority over bureaucrats deputed to the Delhi government, it will be difficult for his party to participate in the “future meetings of like-minded parties where the Congress is a participant".
The AAP, in its response to the Congress’s invite, has reminded the latter of the same.
Speaking to reporters, Kejriwal said, “We have received an invite from the Congress party. Last time, in the Patna meeting, the Congress had said that 15 days ahead of Parliament session, it will publicly announce its opposition to the ordinance and vote against the ordinance. We are still waiting."
With just two more days for the opposition meeting and five more days for the Parliament session, sources said that in the absence of clarity, it is unlikely that the AAP would attend the Bengaluru meeting. So far, the JD(U), RJD, TMC, NCP, DMK, CPI, CPM, SS (UBT), CPI(ML), JMM, KCR’s BRS have supported the AAP on the ordinance. The BRS, however, is not part of the group of 16 yet.
THE STALEMATE
Even as the AAP waits for the Congress to make its stance public, its government in Punjab has arrested former deputy chief minister and Congress leader OP Soni in a disproportionate assets case.
In a sharp contrast to the nimble Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is constantly on the lookout for potential allies and wastes no time in wooing them, the Congress is dragging its feet on the Delhi ordinance, despite the public appeals by the AAP chief. That the host of the next opposition meeting has kept the leader of a national party waiting for even a cup of tea could be a sign of high-handedness and a potential red flag for many others.
“It is a simple thing for Congress leader Rahul Gandhi to invite Kejriwal for tea. Nothing needs to come out of it. Give them grand tea. How does it matter? You reach out on a human level. We must not forget that there is a bitter relationship between the Congress and AAP and there have been personals attacks too. That creates scars, which they will have to overcome," said Neerja Chowdhury, veteran political analyst and author of ‘How Prime Ministers Decide’, which releases on August 5. “If you are going for difficult negotiations, most leaders will keep quiet, working behind the scenes. But you can understand Kejriwal too. With his powers taken away by the Centre, what will be left for him? A lot is at stake for him."
CHALLENGES FOR UNITY
Despite the AAP-Congress issue, leaders of other Opposition parties are confident that they will remain united. “We have taken a resolve to defeat the BJP, so all other issues will be sorted out," D Raja, general secretary of the Communist Party of India (CPI) told News18.
“The challenges for the opposition unity were much greater in 1977. I am 100% sure that the AAP will be part of the next meeting," said Prof Manoj Jha of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). When asked about the Congress not making its stance on the ordinance clear, he said, “Let’s wait. The ordinance has not been placed in Parliament and I can assure you that all of us, including the Congress, have always voted against the very idea of an unconstitutional ordinance. So everybody will be on board."
“If Prime Minister Narendra Modi comes back for a third stint in power, there will be a question mark on the future of the Opposition parties. In some sense, this is an existential crisis for them, so they may decide to let go of this now to live to fight another day," said Chowdhury, on whether the Opposition parties, including the Congress, would be able to reach a middle ground and mount a united fight against the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
“Alliances have never been easy. In 1977, after the Emergency, it happened suddenly because the leaders were in jail. Indira Gandhi did not expect it to happen so quickly. Also in 1989, the leaders wanted a fight against Rajiv Gandhi. Now, it is a fight against Modi. They know that even in 2019, when the BJP won 303 seats, 63% of the popular vote was against the BJP. So if you consolidate most of this at the constituency level… Forget national politics or leader or the narrative, just stick to the LS constituencies. Can you have one-on-one fights in as many Lok Sabha constituencies as possible? I think the BJP realizes this, so it is pulling out all stops to ensure the Opposition unity does not go forward," she explained.
ANXIETY, SEAT-SHARING AND AGENDA
Not just AAP, other parties, too, may be anxious. “The Congress is not playing the role of the Big Brother this time. Be it Trinamool Congress’s Mamata Banerjee, Kejriwal, or Samajwadi Party’s Akhilesh Yadav, they are worried about the dominance of the Congress and what kind of a role it would play. This time, they came to Patna, which was a big step forward. The Congress, from all accounts, has indicated to them that they are not going to play the Big Brother. I am told that Rahul Gandhi has also told Janata Dal United’s Nitish Kumar that he is not in the race for 2024 and the Congress would support them in every way," said Chowdhury.
A common agenda and seat-sharing would be the next big challenges. Noting that the reluctance of the Congress is stemming from the concerns that it would only reinforce the growth of the AAP at its expense, Chowdhury said, “That is the dilemma the Congress will face everywhere. If it wants to have an alignment in Uttar Pradesh with Yadav, it will have to be reasonable about its own ground strength. If it wants a tie-up, it will have to leave a reasonable number of seats. Also in case of West Bengal, the Congress is tied up with the Left. Banerjee wants it to be delinked from the Left and these will be difficult decisions. If the Congress asks for seats according to its past status, it will not work. The truth is that these regional parties have gained at the expense of the Congress and they are worried that if the Congress has to be revived, it will be at their expense. Those are natural contradictions they have to overcome. That is not easy at all."
‘OPPOSITION JODO’ FOR KHARGE?
Gandhi walked 4,000 km on his ‘Bharat Jodo’ mission. Should he now focus on honing his political skills to unite the Opposition or at least not rub the potential allies the wrong way?
Chowdhury believes that Gandhi should continue to focus on his yatras and leave the job of dealing with the allies to Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge. “Bharat Jodo was successful. It was not because of the family. It was something he did himself. After all, he was the symbol of entitlement in politics and people saw him walking and coming to them to hear them out. But Opposition parties don’t necessarily accept him as their possible leader. Let that role be played by Kharge. ‘Opposition Jodo’ might be a good slogan, but it is better that Gandhi walks from east to west, as they are planning to do," she said.
Chowdhury also pointed out how the Congress and Gandhi have changed tacks from being brash to getting their act together – in the manner in which they brought TS Singh Deo and Bhupesh Baghel together in Chhattisgarh, and handled Sachin Pilot in Rajasthan. In both cases, Gandhi was in the background, while Kharge took the lead.
While 10 of the Opposition parties have already declared their support for the AAP over the ordinance, all eyes are now on the Congress’s next step.
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