It's 'National vs Local' Fight in Himachal; Will It Work for the BJP? What Opinion Polls Say | Explained

Another opinion poll has predicted a BJP victory in Himachal Pradesh, where the saffron party is in power.

According to the Republic TV-P-MARQ poll, the BJP will defy the trend and return to power. In a 68-member Assembly, the BJP is expected to win 37-45 seats (45.2 percent of the vote).

If this poll is correct, Congress will have to be content with 22-28 seats (40.1%), a slight improvement over its 2017 performance. The AAP may receive one seat (5.2%), while others may receive one to four seats.

With Himachal considered a swing state, all eyes are on who will take the coveted power seat. The BJP is working hard to keep HP, which is known for its anti-incumbency, while newcomers like the AAP try to make inroads.

A National Vs Local Issues Fight

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is seen evoking national issues in the run-up to the elections in Himachal Pradesh. The Congress party, on the other hand, has largely focused on local issues.

The 68-member State Assembly has seen a bipolar contest between the Congress and the BJP over the last three decades. This time, the stage is set for a fight between these old foes, who are employing opposing strategies in this hill State.

The BJP has been touting the benefits of ‘double engine’ governments (with the same party in power at both the Centre and the State) in its campaign, as well as bringing up national issues such as the repeal of Article 370, the construction of the Ram Temple, and India’s cross-border air strike, a report by the Hindu states. The promise to implement the Uniform Civil Code is also prominent in the BJP’s manifesto.

The Congress, on the other hand, has been careful not to lose sight of the local State-level issues that it is using to corner the BJP government, such as rising unemployment, rising prices, administrative governance, corruption allegations against the backdrop of alleged irregularities in police recruitment, teacher recruitment, and the purchase of PPE kits in the health department, the non-restoration of the Old Pension Scheme for government employees, the report states.

What issues will lend a helping hand to which party, it remains to be seen.

Opposing Campaigning Styles, As Well

Both parties have been mocking each other in their campaigning styles, as well, the report states. The Congress has maintained that the BJP is campaigning aggressively because it anticipates defeat in the upcoming election, alleging that the ruling party’s extensive poll spending is an attempt to woo voters now after failing to deliver in the previous five years. The BJP, on the other hand, has been pointing out Congress leaders Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi’s absence from election campaigning as proof of their indifference to Himachal Pradesh.

What About Other Opinion Polls?

According to the results of the ABP C-Voter opinion poll released on October 3, the BJP will receive between 37 and 45 seats out of a total of 68 seats in Himachal Pradesh, while the Congress may receive between 21 and 29 seats.

And as per the India TV-Matrize Opinion polls, the BJP is expected to receive 46% of the vote in the Himachal assembly elections, while the Congress is expected to receive 42%. According to the poll, the AAP will receive only 2% of the vote in the state. Other parties and independents are expected to receive 10% of the votes cast. It stated that the BJP will be re-elected with 41 assembly seats. The BJP previously won 44 seats. The Congress is expected to gain 25 seats, adding four to its total from 2017. According to the survey, the AAP will be unable to open an account in the state.

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