There’s a saying in Pakistan that if one wants to excel in politics, he must seek the blessings of three ‘As’ — America, Army and Allah. Imran Khan seems to be rewriting that narrative as he conveys to the people of Pakistan that the first 2As can be dispensable if one manages to hold on to Allah.
On Thursday evening, when the Pakistan Supreme Court called the arrest of Imran Khan “illegal” and ordered for his immediate release, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) chief was as much vindicated for his anti-Americanism as for taking the Pakistan Army head-on. For the first time in the history of Pakistan, people were out in the streets, venting their anger against the country’s all-powerful military. They even entered the Pakistan Army headquarters and the home of a serving Corps Commander was reportedly ransacked. This kind of anger against the Pakistan Army had been unprecedented. In fact, the people of Pakistan would welcome every time the Army took over the administration of the State — the last time this was the case in 1999 when Gen Pervez Musharraf decided to send the then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif packing.
This was not the only time a leading politician was arrested in Pakistan. From Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, his daughter Benazir Bhutto and his son-in-law Asif Ali Zardari, to Nawaz Sharif and his brother Shehbaz Sharif — there is a long list of top politicians in Pakistan who were all arrested at various times, especially when they tried playing hardball with the Army. Imran Khan, in contrast, began his political career as the military’s blue-eyed boy. He could, in fact, become the Prime Minister of Pakistan in 2018 precisely because the then Army chief, Gen Qamar Bajwa, had put his weight behind him. But then the two fell apart. And Imran Khan lost his prime ministership.
At a cursory glance, it would appear that Imran Khan got some relief in the Pakistan Supreme Court on Thursday, but it’s a temporary respite. After all, this isn’t the only case he is facing. As of today, if a Press Trust of India report is to be believed, the former Pakistan PM faces at least 121 legal cases, including those related to treason, blasphemy, terrorism, and inciting violence. He may be out in this one case, courtesy of the Supreme Court of Pakistan, but it won’t take the Pakistani military and the Deep State long to fix him permanently through other cases.
It is believed that Imran Khan has his supporters in the judiciary. But will the situation remain the same when the Pakistan Army comes out in the open against the cricketer-turned-politician? He may still command a few individual loyalties, but the judiciary as a whole would abandon him. When the Army draws the Lakshman Rekha, the judiciary — like other institutions in Pakistan — is expected to fall in line.
It’s, however, the vandalism of Imran Khan’s supporters, especially on the military installations, that might eventually seal his fate. Before this week, the Pakistan Army was deeply divided, with a section being sympathetic towards Imran Khan’s ‘cause’. Also, what kept the military divided was the fact that Army Chief Asim Munir was supposed to retire on 27 November 2022, two days before Gen Bajwa completed an extended tenure of almost six years. This caused a lot of heartburn in the higher military echelon. The attack on military installations by Imran’s supporters seems to have narrowed the divide among generals: The Army tends to become one close-knit unit when it is attacked, when its image gets compromised in any way.
In fact, the almost-leisurely manner in which the mob entered the Pakistani military establishment and vandalised properties, makes one believe that it was the Army’s ploy to let these protesters attack. Unfortunately, for Imran Khan, his supporters fell into this trap. The suspicion gets stronger when one realises that the Corps Commander’s Lahore residence was actually vacated a week ago! Imran supporters may feel they have pushed the Army back, but the truth is it’s the endgame for Imran Khan in Pakistani politics.
Most importantly, only those who know nothing about Pakistan can believe that the Army has retreated into the barracks and now politicians led by Imran Khan would call the shots. The fact of the matter is that Pakistan, by its very nature, is not a normal state. Born out of India in the name of Islam, Pakistan’s very raison d’etre remains anti-India-ism. It won’t exist if India extinguishes. It needs a rival in “Hindu India” to justify its existence. And as American author C Christine Fair writes in her seminal book, Fighting to the End: The Pakistan Army’s Way of War, “Since the earliest years of the state, Pakistan’s army has assumed the role of protecting Pakistan’s ideological frontiers and maintaining Pakistan’s ‘Islamic’ identity.”
Till the time Pakistan pretends to be “the fortress of Islam”, it will be forced to rely excessively on the armed forces. The generals would continue to call the shots. Pakistan, in its current avatar, just cannot afford not to be seen as an Islamic state that is constantly at war with “Hindu India”.
For the political class of Pakistan, however, the current economic crisis is a blessing in disguise. Had Pakistan been financially stable, the Army would have stepped in by now. But such is the nature of the economic crisis that the generals don’t want to further burn their fingers, especially after Imran Khan has already pushed them into the corner. Given this compulsion, the Army today desists from direct intervention into Pakistani politics.
This compulsion provides a lifeline to the likes of Sharifs and Bhuttos. These traditional dynasts have lost their sheen and credibility, especially in the presence of Imran Khan, who often reminds of Zulfiqar Bhutto, thanks to his personal charisma and ideological fluidity. Just like Zulfiqar Bhutto, he finds no contradictions in wooing Islamists while being an ardent socialist. As Imran Khan writes in his book, Pakistan: A Personal History, “I find it strange that in Pakistan, people who stand up for Islamic values are called Rightists. Islamic values actually have more in common with Leftist ideologies in terms of social equality and welfare.”
But then Zulfiqar Bhutto was the last prominent Pakistani leader to be hanged after the Army under Gen Zia-ul-Haq deposed him. He had challenged the military to no end. Such was his hold over Pakistanis politics of the 1970s that Gen Zia, as the story goes, rushed to clean his shoes when a few drops of tea fell on them! A few years later, Gen Zia sent the same man to the gallows. Zulfiqar Bhutto should be a cautionary tale for Imran Khan. After all, those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
The author is Opinion Editor, Firstpost and News18. He tweets from @Utpal_Kumar1. Views expressed are personal.
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