The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), with the Indigenous Peoples Front of Tripura (IPFT), formed a government in Tripura; the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) and the BJP formed a coalition government in Nagaland; and the National People’s Party (NPP) supported by the BJP and Hill State People’s Democratic Party (HSPDP) formed a government in Meghalaya.
NDPP’s Neiphiu Rio and NPP’s Conrad Sangma took oath as Chief Ministers of Nagaland and Meghalaya on March 7, 2023. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, BJP National Chief J.P. Nadda and Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma were present to grace the occasion. Dr Manik Saha took oath as Tripura’s Chief Minister for the second time on March 8.
Tripura
BJP-IPFT alliance returned to power in Tripura, winning 33 seats in the 60-member assembly. BJP won 32 seats, securing 38.97 percent of the total votes and the IPFT secured 1 seat, with a vote share of 1.26 percent. The mandate goes in favour of the BJP to hold power for the next five years without any external support, especially that of Tipra Motha (TMP).
Himanta Biswa Sarma: The Trailblazer
In the electoral outcomes of the three Northeastern states, the trail-blazing role of Himanta Biswa Sarma, the incumbent CM of Assam and the Convener of the North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA), is note-worthy. Inarguably, he is the man for BJP in the region. His relentless electoral campaigns, post-poll political calculations and manoeuvring contributed highly to keep the BJP in the region. In the entire campaign duration in Tripura, he covered 2,500 km by campaigning and participating in 35 electoral rallies and two road shows, apart from a tedious door-to-door campaign, thus establishing intense mass contact programs. The replacement of the incumbent CM Biplab Kumar Deb by Manik Saha, just a year before the Assembly elections in 2023, has overturned the anti-incumbency sentiments and has proven to be a boon for the party. The change in leadership in BJP-ruled states, especially with the Assembly polls around the corner, shows the long shadow of the party’s defeat in Jharkhand being cast on the continuation of chief ministers leading to dissidence. After the BJP was able to maintain a ‘status quo’ in the electoral outcomes, as per the claims of Himanta Biswa Sarma, he became the epitome of power dynamics that revolved round the actualization of the narrative of peace, consolidation, development, ethnicity and mainstreaming the Northeastern regional politics. Not to forget that his political acumen and social capital was instrumental in forming the BJP government in Assam in 2016 (first term), followed by Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur and Tripura while the NDA held on to Nagaland, Mizoram and Meghalaya in a domino’s effect in the 2018 phase of Assembly elections and repeating the same in the case of 2023 Assembly polls in Tripura, Nagaland and Meghalaya. Despite Sarbananda Sonowal being the chief ministerial candidate of the BJP, Himanta Sarma was the main architect of the 2016 historic win over Assam and repeating the same in 2021. In 2021, Sarma became the chief minister of Assam. This divides the vision of Amit Shah and the naivete and political juvenility of Rahul Gandhi. The electoral debacle of the Congress in Assam only underscored the leadership’s inability to assess the political resourcefulness of a regional leader like Sarma, characterised by an unfiltered knack for public dealing and political manoeuvring.
For his image of an ‘indefatigable doer’, the BJP selected Sarma as the Convener of NEDA in 2016. And this decision can be regarded as the most prudent selection of a political mastermind. NEDA is a BJP-led front of anti-Congress parties in the Northeast which has been instrumental in aggressively wiping out the Congress from the region.
Demands for state-reorganisation and BJP’s ‘no-bifurcation’
The BJP is clear in its stand against a ‘Greater Tipraland’ or bifurcation of Tripura and as Himanta Sarma calls it – ‘opening a pandora’s box’. And securing a clear majority after taking a stand speaks of indigenous identity politics permeating much beyond state reorganisation. The Constitution of India states that India is an “indestructible union of destructible states”, which shows a federation with a strong Union. The Constitution does not guarantee the existence of a state with its boundaries and as a politico-territorial unit with permanence. Under Article 4, it empowers the Parliament to create new states and alter the existing boundaries. Article 3 of the Constitution allows the Centre to unilaterally redraw the borders of the states (with the consultation but not the consent of the state government) which proves to be a vital instrument securing the flexibility of the Union government to respond positively or negatively to such demands from different groups/organisations. Any idea of mono- culturalism to the exclusion of economic and political-administrative considerations may be considered anachronistic in an age of multiculturalism and multilingualism.
Tribal vote is and has been crucial for the BJP. The poll manifesto of Tripura put the highest focus on tribal welfare, with assurances of greater autonomy to the Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council (TTAADC), a Constitutional amendment to pass the 125th amendment bill pending in the Parliament, granting greater legislative, financial and administrative autonomy to the Tribal Council, safeguarding the interest of the tribals under provision of 244 (2) and Article 275 (1) of the Constitution, apart from financial assistance of Rs 5,000 to each tribal family through Direct Benefit Transfer and a host of populist measures like free scooters and smartphones for college-going girls, two free cylinders to beneficiaries of the Ujjwala Yojana, etc. Apart from welfare measures for the indigenous tribal population, the resettlement of 37000 Bru/Reang migrants in Tripura is an ambitious and commendable state initiative. Such promises and efforts bear positively upon the election outcomes for the BJP. Despite the fact that the TMP has won 13 seats of the total 42, bagging 19 percent share of the total votes and thus making a significant inroad into the BJP and Left-Congress vote share, its performance has declined in comparison to the 2021 TTADC elections. Of the 42 contested Assembly seats, 20 were tribal constituencies, so the mandate of the people is not that clear in favour of TMP’s claim of being the only torchbearer of the indigenous identity of Tripura. In 2021 TTADC elections, TMP won 16 and 2 IMP (its ally) seats out of a total 28 seats, accounting for a total 46.73 percent of the total votes, whereas the BJP won 9 seats accounting for 29.34 percent of the total votes.
Possibilities of co-option
The greatest challenge of the TMP is to maintain its MLAs intact without being co-opted by the incumbent BJP. One example can be that of the coming of AGP (Asom Gana Parishad) of Assam back to the BJP, after separating from the latter at the height of the anti-CAA (Citizenship Amendment Act) movement. The anti-CAA agitation was a widespread one and the mobilisation was led mostly by the youth and resulted in new political formations which consolidated against the BJP. However, how Himanta Sarma neutralised the CAA movement is an exemplary stroke of understanding the political reality and the demographic profile of the state. Electoral politics is about popular representation, the ‘manufacture of consent’ and the construction of the image of a consolidated leadership personifying power and dynamism. Reinforcing the first policy guideline of the Union government, Himanta Sarma said, “Politics has also a lot to do with perception. The Assamese are full of dignity and pride. Identity, for many, may surpass the existential bread and butter,” thus diverting the anti-CAA sentiments to a deeper identity politics. The example can be pertinent here in Tripura, as the BJP is working to penetrate deeper into the hills with a welfarist model without the bifurcation model. The Union government is keen to see the governance in the Northeast handled proactively and a process of peace and development rolled out effectively. Amit Shah has ensued the Union government’s policy for the Northeast in three focused areas:
- Maintaining and promoting its dialects, languages, dance, music, food, culture.
- Ending disputes in the Northeast and promoting peace in the region.
- Bringing development in the region and trying to bring up its GDP.
The Modi government has launched the PM-DevINE scheme with a budget of Rs 6,600 crore plan outlay for the development of the Northeast, which will be centrally sponsored, and will be implemented during the remaining four years of the 15th Finance Commission, from 2022-23 to 2025-26. The PM-DevINE is in addition to the quantum of resources available for the development of the NE region. It will not be a substitute for existing Central and state schemes.
Nagaland: NDPP-BJP alliance
In 2018, Himanta Biswa Sarma played the most pivotal role in Nagaland, by making the rival fronts like NPF and NDPP, BJP’s political allies in the state, forming a coalition government. This year too, the NDPP-BJP alliance formed a government with Neiphiu Rio as the chief minister. The NDPP-BJP alliance bagged 37 seats (25+12) in the 60-member Nagaland Assembly, thus, securing a second term in government. BJP and its local alliance NDPP have gained 10 percent more votes than in the 2018 polls and the alliance is very close to 2/3rd or absolute majority. Interestingly, the BJP has played the masterstroke by forming a government in Nagaland, almost leaving little scope for the Opposition and making the pre-poll and post-poll talks fluid. Despite the fact that numerous political formations participated in the 2023 Assembly polls, all secured single-digit seats in the polls (NCP-7, NPP-5, NPF-2, LJP(RV) -2, RPI(A) -2, JDU-1 and 4 independents).
Peace and Consolidation: The Benchmark Agenda
The 2023 elections also mark a seven-seat rise in the total number of seats gained to the previous one where the BJP-NDPP alliance secured 30 seats. This is a clear mark of electoral improvement, that too in a state where 90 percent population is Christian and the BJP’s political USP is Hindutva. However, a model of good governance suited to the local needs proved to be of electoral advantage to the BJP-NDPP alliance. Assurances of no religious interference and no restrictions on beef consumption resulted from the saffron party’s stand that the local Christians don’t feel threatened. Though it continued to work among the local non-Christians at the same time.
Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act (AFSPA), 1958 had been applicable in the whole of Nagaland since 1995 but it was partially lifted by the Centre and is now restricted to nine areas falling under a few police stations till March 2023. Reduction in areas under AFSPA is a result of the improved security and law and order situation and fast-tracked development due to the consistent efforts and several agreements to end insurgency and bring lasting peace in the Northeast by the Union government. In Nagaland, all major groups — the NSCN (I-M) and Naga National Political Groups (NNPGs) — are at advanced stages of concluding agreements with the Union government. After the complete lifting of AFSPA from Tripura and Meghalaya in 2015 and 2018 respectively, PM Narendra Modi has announced the Union government’s stand on lifting the same from Nagaland completely, after intensifying and fast-tracking the peace process with NSCN-IM and NNPGs. Himanta Sarma called the peace process and lifting of AFSPA entirely to be a ‘conviction of the BJP rather than an electoral manifesto.’
The commitment of good governance with a stable ‘double-engine’ government, development and sustainable employment opportunities, and free education for girls are the key promises of the NDPP-BJP alliance.
Meghalaya: NPP hung without BJP
Conrad Sangma’s NPP decided to play solo in Meghalaya and won 26 seats out of 59 and fell short of the majority. After Conrad Sangma deviated from his pre-poll stance of not allying with the BJP, by calling Amit Shah, seeking support and by meeting Himanta Biswa Sarma in Guwahati to seal the deal, even before the election results were declared, the BJP decided to extend its support of two MLA’s to Sangma’s party to form a government in the state. Now the alliance of NPP, BJP and HSPDP will have a total strength of 32 in the 60-member Meghalaya Legislative Assembly.
Through these elections, the BJP consolidated its presence in the Northeast. Sarma’s role has been pivotal in strategizing, campaigning and political manoeuvring. Across the region, and unlike in the rest of the country, BJP has not closed the door for alliance and changed its usual position to be either in power or in Opposition. Rather, it has chosen to be in the decision-making process of the respective governments, even by being a smaller partner like in Meghalaya. The party’s efforts of mainstreaming Northeast politics take centre stage in its agenda and the constant effort of consolidation and peace-building, without marginalising the peace talks, by taking the interlocutors seriously in the case of NSCN-IM, is pragmatic. Indian National Congress, the grand old political formation, has much to learn from its ruling adversary. When PM Narendra Modi and the other party leaders of the BJP made visits for campaigning in these poll-bound states, either to maintain or to improve its vote share in the region, Rahul Gandhi, the de facto Chief, continued to disconnect with party campaigns and performance, by visiting Cambridge University and skiing at Gulmarg during the peak of the campaigns. It speaks of his dispassionate and reluctant participation in the entire process of electioneering in the three states of the Northeast. His absence from the campaigns, apart from the one in Meghalaya, has necessarily resulted in demoralising the party workers in all three poll-bound states along with a popular perception of the Congress giving up the stage to the BJP, much before the grand finale of 2024 General Elections.
The author is a senior faculty in the department of History, ARSD College, DU. She has done her MPhil, PhD program from Center for Historical Studies, JNU. Views expressed are personal.
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