In a stunning upset, the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is projected to oust the Congress in Punjab in Assembly elections 2022 to win its second state within 10 years of being formed. The party, which is currently in power in Delhi, has been projected to win 75-plus seats in the 117-member Punjab Assembly, as per exit polls 2022.
The Axis My India survey has projected 76-90 seats for the AAP in Punjab, taking it beyond the majority mark of 59 seats. The Jan Ki Baat poll has predicted 60-84 seats for the Aam Aadmi Party, while the P-Marq survey said the party is tipped to land between 62 and 70 seats. As per the ETG Research, AAP could win 70-75 seats, and the Polstrat pegged the party beyond the magic number but lower at 56-61 seats. Today’s Chanakya gave 100 seats to AAP and 10 to Congress, with SAD+ at six and BJP at one.
The Congress, meanwhile, has been projected to lose Punjab with just around 30 seats in the Assembly. The SAD-BSP alliance is predicted to manage double digit seat count limited below 25. The BJP and allies have been projected to win single-digit tallies. The counting of votes for Punjab elections 2022 will be held on March 10, 2022.
Punjab had recorded an overall voter turnout of approximately 70% in the single-phase, multi-cornered contest for the 117-member Assembly. A total of 1,304 candidates, including two transgender persons were in the fray this time.
The main contest was among the ruling Congress, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), which contested the polls in alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party after breaking two-decade old ties with the BJP in 2020 over the farm laws. The BJP-Punjab Lok Congress (PLC) alliance was also in the fray, besides the Sanyukt Samaj Morcha, comprising Punjab farmer bodies that had taken part in the agitation against the Centre’s now repealed agricultural laws.
The Congress portrayed incumbent Charanjit Singh Channi as the chief ministerial candidate despite protracted lobbying by Punjab unit chief Navjot Singh Sidhu. Comedian-turned-politician Bhagwant Mann was the AAP CM face, while the Akali Dal stuck with Sukhbir Singh Badal.
Apart from the year-long farmers’ protest against now-repealed agri-marketing laws, the issues of sacrilege and drugs smuggling dominated the election narrative. The BJP made the unprecedented breach of the Prime Minister’s security part of its campaign pitch on security in the border state.
In the 2017 Assembly elections, the Congress had won an absolute majority by winning 77 seats in the 117-member Assembly, ousting the SAD-BJP government after 10 years.
The AAP had emerged as the second-largest party, winning 20 seats. Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) won 15 seats, while the BJP, which had a coalition government with the Akali Dal in Punjab from 2007 to 2017, secured three seats.
AAP Finally Going National?
For the AAP, 2022 is promising to be the breakthrough year when it can finally cross the hump of being a ‘Delhi-centric’ regional outfit and spread its wings in Punjab to begin with. If it manages to do that, and it seems likely as per the exit poll results, AAP would achieve what no other regional party has been able to do so far, be it the TMC, BJD, TDP, TRS or YSR Congress, which undeniably are very strong in their respective states led by charismatic leaders.
Though also fighting in Goa and Uttarakhand, the party has its highest stakes in Punjab where it is the principal opposition party now and is looking at some real chances of forming the next government.
Without getting into the technicalities of what actually constitutes a national party, Sanjay Kumar of CSDS has told News18 that compared to other regional parties, AAP would stake a bigger claim for expansion at the national level, because this is the only party that is the ruling party in one state and very, very strong in another state; there is no other regional party that is strong in two states.
Challengers for 2024
With just two years to go, the Assembly elections 2022 are being seen as the half-time indicators for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The question is not whether the BJP will make it a third time at the Centre but what the Opposition’s game plan is, if it has one.
Senior journalist Radhika Ramaseshan feels the Opposition is “an army of disparate forces, without a commander-in-chief to lead the squads to the battleground”. With Congress bereft of a full-time president and Rahul Gandhi reluctant to take on the reins again, where does hope for the Opposition lie?
“Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal, the West Bengal and Delhi chief ministers, are in a crowd of regional chieftains, who have their sights set upon the Centre, despite the limitations within which they operate. With the constraints, Mamata and Kejriwal have signalled their intent to not remain confined within their geographical turfs,” says Ramaseshan.
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