New Delhi: Perhaps for the first time since 1985, caste has dominated a Gujarat election to this extent. Patidar leader Hardik Patel, Dalit activist Jignesh Mevani and OBC leader Alpesh Thakor came to form an alliance that articulated the resentment against the BJP, which has ruled Gujarat for the last 22 years. Their combined assault, as some experts say, “brought Narendra Modi to the streets of the poll-bound state.” News18 spoke to experts on the role of youth leaders and voters in this election.
Young Caste Leaders Challenged Old Guard
“The combine of Alpesh, Jignesh, Hardik and Vasava brought Modi to the streets of Gujarat,” said Dr Harun Mansuri, assistant professor, Indian Politics at Sardar Patel University. Mansuri said Modi’s campaign, which started with vikas, went to dynasty and finally ended on Ahmed Patel and Pakistan. There were seaplane rides, last minute ‘roadshows’ and Ro-Ro Ferry rides, “Prime Minister was in Gujarat all the time.”
Baldev Agja, professor and human rights activist said, “Decades have passed and what’s passed on as development is basically selective development — only of the elites. These boys embody the disenchantment in the youth regarding the development of only the elite. They belong to the youth of Gujarat and have a defining effect on state politics.”
According to Agja and Mansuri, the agitation by the three activists contributed to the Congress’s revival in the state. “They have resuscitated the Congress.” Their view is shared by political analyst Hari Desai, director-founder of Sardar Patel Research Institute, who said that Congress benefited from the three movements. “Their angst oiled the field for Rahul Gandhi. Now, even if he loses in Gujarat, he has got the launching pad. To say the obvious, the rise is because of these men,” he said.
They Still Depend On Old Parties
While Hardik, Alpesh and Jignesh have found followers across the state, there are others whose appeal is largely confined to certain regions of Gujarat. Tribal leader Chhotubhai Vasava is one such leader. “He is not as big for tribals as Hardik is for Patels. He will play a minor role in Gujarat elections,” said Sanjay Kumar from CSDS.
However, Kumar also said that Hardik’s movement would fizzle out unless Congress came to power. “There will be no change for them if they don't have Congress in power. Things will remain the way they are unless and until BJP reaches out to him and engages a dialogue with him.”
Even then, these boys brought a new kind of politics to Gujarat. “They opposed BJP in non-conventional ways that were not known in the state. Gujarat is not Bengal. Hardik brought a new phenomenon of street agitations in Gujarat.”
Plans for Future
Abhay Kumar from CSDS said, “There is internal rift among Patidars – Kadva and Leuva vote against each other's choices. If one is pro-BJP, the other will be against it. So if Hardik Patel, who is a Kadva, is fighting against the BJP and telling people to defeat them, chances are the Leuva Patels might do the reverse.” He warns, “Action and reaction might nullify the impact of these three young leaders.”
Desai, however, has hope, “This time the angst is so deep that there is a consolidation of Patel votes as well.” He pointed out, “At the time of the Patidar agitation in 2015 there were grass-root level elections in 31 out of 33 seats, and in that zila parishad congress won 23 seats. That win was not because of Congress but the Patidar resentment.”
According to Abhay Kumar, Rahul Gandhi came out with flying colors but that’s hardly a verdict on Hardik, Jignesh and Alpesh. “For any movement to click, it has to make linkages with other communities as well, and serve agenda in a larger and more common parlance." But their movements were divided – Alpesh, Hardik did not agree with each other on a reservation formula. The three, it seems, have only come together to defeat the BJP.
He added, “The three are together only in election time. Before this, the leaders were agitating separately, in fact quarreling with each other. It is not to be compared with the anti-corruption movement. That movement affected people from all walks of life and their psyche. It won Delhi for Arvind Kejriwal.”
BJP’s Organizational Edge
Many observers of politics in India would agree that the BJP’s organizational strength gives it an edge in the polls. The strength of the organization, some feel, is enough to trump resentment generated by these new leaders. Some argue that GST and demonetization can derail the BJP in Gujarat. But if UP is anything to go by that is not the case.
Kumar from CSDS said, “We expect these aspects of economy like GST, notebandi to translate into anti-government verdict. I have a feeling that the Gujarat elections might have lesson for all analysts. Maybe, these kinds of ruptures, small or whatever, are not going to alter the electoral equation for the party. It might make some difference, but astute leadership can recover from all that.”
Jagannath Mishra and old Congress leader also told News 18, “BJP’s strength is their organization. On the other hand, Congress does not have ground connect.”
Will They Trump Polarization?
Polarization has become, over the last few decades, a part of Gujarat politics. But can these three leaders change that? “Change of that sort cannot happen overnight. The psyche of Gujarat is polarized but Congress will dent urban voters, except maybe in Bhavnagar and Vadodra. In my view Surat, Rajkot and Ahmedabad will see some change,” added Desai.
He felt that this election did not have a lot of state issues being raised. “We need to see if this will earn them dividends in the elections, as it has always done,” said Desai.
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