Dehradun: On the eve of the crucial trust vote in the state assembly ordered by the Supreme Court in May this year, Uttarakhand Chief Minister Harish Rawat quietly left the Bijapur Guest House - a portion of which now doubles up as the chief ministerial residence - in Dehradun Cantonment for Mussoorie.
Close to midnight when his carcade meandered down the Doon valley, Rawat was reasonably confident he had the numbers to prove a majority on the floor of the House. He had had a meeting with BSP leader and state in-charge Naseemuddin Siddiqui who had assured the CM that two BSP MLAs, both from Haridwar, and both Muslims, will be voting for his government during floor test.
The next day, Rawat sailed through comfortably when the Speaker called for division in the Uttarkhand Assembly.
But the incident underscored the importance of minority votes in a hill state which has an assembly of 70, where a few hundred votes here and there can make or mar electoral outcomes.
In announcing a special 90-minute break for Muslim employees on Friday, Harish Rawat has made one last ditch effort to mobilise minority votes in 23 assembly segments in the Tarai region contiguous to Uttar Pradesh where the minority constitutes anywhere between 15 to 35 percent of the electorate.
“This decision has got nothing to do with elections. This government has followed the principle of Sarv Dharma Sambhav, and this is in accordance with our belief of respecting all religions,” claims media advisor to chief minister Surendra Agarwal.
These two dozen constituencies are spread over four districts of Haridwar, Dehradun, Udham Singh Nagar and Nainital. In the last assembly polls, Congress and BJP shared 10 seats each, the remaining three were won by BSP.
Quite unlike the sparsely populated and upper caste dominated mountainous areas of the state, the constituencies in the Tarai have a high population density with a substantive Dalit population. Dalit and Muslim combination here makes these four districts ideal electoral laborataries for the BSP outside Uttar Pradesh. In the last elections, where BSP could not win, it made enough inroads into Dalit-Muslim votebank to benefit BJP at the cost of the Congress party.
Had it not been for the shock defeat of the then chief minister, Maj Gen B C Khanduri, BJP would have won the last elections in 2012.
If Rawat has to return to power in 2017, Congress has to do exceptionally well in Kumaun Hills and the Tarai.
Most of the top leaders who have left the party in the last two years are from Garhwal region, like Satpal Maharaj, Vijay Bahuguna and Harak Singh Rawat. Nine out of 10 Congress MLAs who rebelled and quit the party are also from Garhwal and its adjoining plains. Congress stares at a leadership crisis in the region as PCC president Kishore Upadhyay remains the lone face who has some pan-Garhwal recognition.
“Congress is practically finished in Uttarakhand. It is only Harish Rawat as an individual who would be fighting the BJP in the ensuing election”; says a former CM and BJP leader from the state.
To win Uttarkhand, Harish Rawat has to do well in two out of three distinct demographic regions of Kumaun, Garhwal and Tarai plains. As he himself is from Kumaun hills, the CM is seen to be comfortable on his home turf. Rawat, the former Seva Dal chief now has his eyes firmly on 23 seats spread over the Bhabar plains of Uttarkhand.
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