Is India Staring at Third Wave? As Omicron Cases Rise, Data Shows Covid Spread Faster Than in Delta Surge

Data on new coronavirus cases recorded over the past few weeks suggest that the Omicron variant is spreading faster than the Delta wave did in 2021. India on Sunday reported 33,647 new Covid-19 infections, the highest in a single day since September 17, or in 107 days. Although the rate in which cases increase are higher, experts from around the world have said that the severity of infections is lesser.

However, reports of the increasing rate of Covid-19 cases show cause for worry. In the week that ended January 2, there were 18,290 new infections of Covid-19 reported everyday on average across India. The previous week, seven days leading to December 25, the national seven-day average of daily cases was 6,641.

In just a week, the rate of new infections has increased by 175%, data analysed by Hindustan Times showed. This is the largest weekly growth seen in the country since April 9, 2020, surpassing even the peak growth rate seen during the second wave, when the number peaked at 75%.

An important distinction to be made is that the volume of cases was far lesser in April 2020, with only about 500 new cases every day, against the current load of around 18,000 new cases.

Another important finding by the HT analysis showed is that it took just five days from a contracting case rate (meaning the rate of infection lesser than previous week) to one that has surpassed the pace of growth seen even during the second wave.

An analysis of Omicron cases, by the NDTV, shows an alarming increase in the rate of infections too. From about 2 per cent share of total Covid cases two to three weeks ago, then shooting up to 30 per cent a few days ago- Omicron variant is now close to 60 per cent of all Covid cases.

Although it is being said that Omicron is milder than Delta, the analyses suggest that if this third wave accelerates in India like it has across the rest of the world, India could see between 16 lakhs to 20 lakh cases every day at its peak compared with the compared with the 4 lakh Delta cases that India had at the peak of our second wave. A third wave peak of 20 lakh Omicron cases would result in 60,000 Omicron hospitalisations per day, as per NDTV estimates.

One thing that can be considered as a silver lining is the third wave, fueled by Omicron, might not last as long as the Delta wave as was the case in South Africa.

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