Exit Polls Predict 2-All for BJP and Congress | Why Both Sides Would Live With It

The exit polls have predicted a 2-all match between the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the big four states that have gone to elections, putting the BJP in the lead in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, while giving the Congress the edge in Telangana and Chhattisgarh.

Both parties would take heart from such predictions, if they hold good on the result day. The BJP has been keen to wrest back Rajasthan and retain Madhya Pradesh, while the Congress has been eager to win power in the southern state of Telangana and retain power in Chhattisgarh.

The Axis poll, which has proved extremely accurate in the past, has predicted a runaway win for the BJP in Madhya Pradesh with 140-162 seats, which could be a record for the BJP. All other exit polls have predicted a narrower win for the BJP in MP. Similarly, while most exit polls have predicted a comfortable win for the BJP in Rajasthan, Axis has predicted a narrow win for the Congress in Rajasthan. Nearly all exit polls have predicted that the Congress would be winning Chhattisgarh.

Telangana presented the most fascinating story on result day with nearly all exit polls predicting that the Congress could secure a narrow win or it will be a hung house, with the BJP and All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) winning some key seats and possibly turning king-makers. A win for the BJP in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh would also reinforce the point that Prime Minister Narendra Modi remains a big factor in state elections in the Hindi heartland, unlike a southern state like Karnataka where the BJP had lost a few months back.

WHAT THE EXIT POLLS INDICATE?

The exit polls indicate that the BJP’s campaign in Madhya Pradesh has been a success and the very popular ‘Mukhyamantri Ladli Behana Yojana’ has worked for the party in which Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan has been transferring Rs 1,000-1,250 to the bank accounts of 1.32 crore women in the state for the past six months.

The BJP did not go with any chief ministerial face and put up 7 MPs as candidates in the assembly elections – a strategy that could have worked for the party in the Hindi heartland state. The Congress looked like being in the lead till a few months back, but the women’s scheme and Modi’s whirlwind campaign in the end seems to have helped the BJP return strongly into the picture.

The key regions of Malwa and Gwalior-Chambal seem to have swung back the BJP way this time, the exit polls indicate. Chouhan, if the BJP wins, would again become a strong contender for the Chief Minister’s chair as it is his scheme that seems to have delivered the state to the BJP.

Rajasthan will also be a key win for the BJP, if the exit polls hold true, except Axis, which has predicted a narrow win for the Congress. The BJP’s campaign centered on the issue of paper leak, crimes against women, infighting between Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot, and anti-incumbency against the Ashok Gehlot government, would have clicked if the BJP manages to win the state.

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It would also be a continuation of the tradition in the state to always vote out the incumbent, as has been in the past 30 years. The Congress, however, had targeted to run the BJP close through its ‘seven guarantees’, including a yearly allowance for women of Rs 10,000 and the popular Chiranjeevi medical insurance scheme of Rs 25 lakh for a family, which it promised to hike to Rs 50 lakh. Gehlot has been maintaining that there is an under-current for him due to his schemes and guarantees. However, the BJP feels it will wrest the state comfortably given the gains it stands to make both from Eastern Rajasthan and the important Mewar region.

Chhattisgarh could again be a close contest, the exit polls are predicting, but the Congress is confident of retaining the state given the popularity of CM Bhupesh Baghel and the paddy procurement price promise made by the party. The BJP did try counter the same in its manifesto, announced a woman allowance promise of Rs 12,000 a year and strongly raised the Mahadev app issue, but the exit polls predict that the Congress would be able to make the cut. In Telangana, the anti-incumbency against the BRS government for a decade, the Congress guarantees and a strong regional campaign by its leaders like Karnataka seem to have worked for the Congress, if ones goes by the exit poll numbers predicting Congress being in the lead. However, if it is a hung house as many predict, the BJP and AIMIM could end up becoming king-makers and it would be interesting if they choose to back the BRS, which remains confident of a win. Both the BJP and the AIMIM do not want the Congress to come to power in Telangana.

In the run-up for 2024, these four state elections and their results on December 3 would hold a lot of clues for what is coming up next in terms of strategy from the BJP led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the INDIA alliance led by the Congress party.

But then these are just exit polls. One should wait for the actual results on December 3.