Helicopters have a symbiotic relation with elections. Lalu Prasad calls them Udan Khatola, for others they are chidiya (bird).
Politicians in the Hindi heartland often hover in the sky around a rally venue, landing only after they have assessed the crowd. The landing and taking off is accompanied by a whirlwind which curious onlookers call aandhi (storm).
Uttar Pradesh has had several such aandhis both metaphorically and literally. In the 2012 elections, Akhilesh Yadav rode to power on a Samajwadi Party wave.
In 2014 Lok Sabha elections it was the Modi tsunami powering BJP win in 71 of the 80 seats.
So, whose wave will it be as UP gears up to yet another season of dust and storm?
Modi, a UPwala, in Saharanpur
If Uttar Pradesh in 2014 was about Narendra Modi and his imminent arrival with Modiji aane wale hain songs playing at BJP rallies, Saharanpur 2016 was about desh badal raha hai, aage badh raha hai, part II of India Shining campaign.
Saharanpur’s neighboring district Muzaffarnagar witnesses communal flare ups regularly. The district was strategically chosen by the Bjp to send a message of their development agenda being above caste and religion.
On May 26, even as the temperature rose, the Prime Minister, a self-proclaimed UPwala, landed in Saharanpur to give an account of his two year work.
Iti Jain, 24 and a BA BEd, was at the rally ground. When asked what Modi can do for her, she replied, “Many things have changed. Let’s see what he can do for women?”
There was another group of women nearby. One of them had come to listen to the Prime Minister. When questioned about what had changed in two years of Modi government, she countered, “Change doesn’t happen overnight.”
“Riots take place under Samajwadi party government. Women and children are the most vulnerable,” replied Radhika when asked what the Akhilesh Yadav government means to women.
Jagpal Singh, a farmer, voted for Samajwadi Party in 2014 but says that benefits of crop insurance or soil testing card are yet to materialise. Vinod Kumar, who showed a booklet distributed by the BJP, said that he is one of the 3 crore beneficiaries of LPG subsidy. But he also added that nothing had happened despite having a bank account.
Sitting close by, Jaipal Singh said he was waiting for the PM to ensure zero corruption. When probed further if Modi was all about promises without delivery, he retorted: “Indira Gandhi ruled for 25 years, Manmohan Singh was the PM for 10 years. Modi has been in power for only two years. Give him time (sic).”
Critics may dismiss them as BJP supporters.
However, having witnessed large enthusiastic gatherings at PM’s rallies in Bihar, where it was a crowd without a thought, Saharanpur was different. Those in Saharanpur had come to listen to the PM, waiting for him to deliver and are not really disillusioned.
The Prime Minister arrived, presented his government’s report card, delivered a speech and left with the government’s new anthem of desh badal raha hai.
There was no mention of Mission 265+ as the new UP Bjp chief Keshav Maurya and other leaders at the venue were vehemently talking about.
But clearly all eyes are now on Amit Shah and his UP strategy as the poll would invariably be converted into a referendum on Modi and Shah.
Will Mayawati emerge as the elephant in the room?
Shah says BJP’s principal opponent in UP is Samajwadi Party. It’s not coincidental that the BJP chose to kickstart its mission UP 2017 with Saharanpur, a BSP bastion. BSP won four of the seven assembly seats in the district in 2012.
Mayawati herself won from Harora twice. The BJP knows that if it is to win UP, the Hindu consolidation that it managed during the 2014 elections must be replicated in 2017.
The real challenge for Mayawati would be if she could hold on to her Dalit vote which deserted her in 2014 as they aligned with their larger Hindu identity above their caste identity.
Have the Dalits of UP moved away, to rephrase Michael Walzer's "hyphenated Americans" to "hyphenated Hindus"? Or was 2014 an aberration?
From “tilak, taraju aur talvar, inko maro joote chaar” to “Brahmin shankh bajayega to haathi dilli jayega”,’ the BSP has constantly reinvented itself, consummating shift in its politics.
What will be Mayawati's new slogan as she battles Samajwadi Party and a resurgent BJP?
Can Akhilesh Yadav ride on his cycle of governance?
When Nitish forced Lalu and Mulayam Singh to announce him as the Mahagathbandhan face in Bihar, his parting words to the reluctant duo was -- if BJP wins Bihar, then winning UP will not be tough.
The young Yadav of UP, Akhilesh, maybe speaking a language of youth and development but his dismal track record on the law and order front will force UPwalas to compare his tenure to that of his predecessor Mayawati.
The good news for Akhilesh though is that the black laptop bag is being spotted almost everywhere in UP just as girls on cycles are a symbol of Nitish rule. He may have sent a signal that as far as UP’s reins are concerned he has struck a balance with his uncles. But the real challenge for Akhilesh is to win over 17% Muslims of UP.
This crucial constituency is getting disillusioned with the Samajwadi Party. The questions before the Muslims are what are they representatives of and who is their representative?
Can PK create a Gandhi ki Aandhi?
He was the first one to talk about an electoral wave, though in the context of the Modi wave in 2014.
Prashant Kishor claimed during a meeting of office bearers in Lucknow that he created a Modi wave in just six months.
The Congress may still be mulling on its strategist’s proposal of a Brahmin face but Team PK has already hit the ground holding regular meetings with Congress supporters. With just six Congress ruled state and the top leadership talking about surgery, it remains to be seen what aces does the strategist have up his sleeves.
In the coming months, it will be a collision of different ideas in UP. Will that generate a storm and who will ride the giant wave?
The landing and take offs of choppers in UP have only begun.
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