"Jitan Ram Manjhi isn't a neta of Dalits. Dalits don't have a leader in Bihar, they keep shifting loyalties. They were with Ram Vilas Paswan earlier (dalit kabhi iske saath kabhi uske saath.)," he came late into this impromptu group of people who had gathered in Makhdumpur in Jehanabad. He gave his view but disappeared before we could ask his name.
Then there was no stopping the locals who vote on Friday in the second phase of polling in Bihar. "We don't drink petrol but consume onions. I won't live to see 'development' as it's still on paper ," they say.
Who was he hinting towards? Whose model of development or 'Vikas' was he rejecting or endorsing? Nitish or Modi's, he doesn't explain. We don't know his name, he is an ordinary Bihari. Biharis are a complex lot with a shrewd political mind, and one can't put their voting preferences into brackets.
They don't give clear, direct answers to questions. They engage with you and leave you thinking. Decoding their answers is a challenging task that only pollsters can accomplish.
Here is how layered a typical 'litti' pe charcha can be. "Manjhi was ill-treated by Nitish, but what did he get in NDA?' and "rajneeti mein uthal puthal hoti rehti hai"- "if Nitish cheated so what did he do? We have been caught in the crossfire," say residents as we speak to them during our journey further inside the Naxal hotbed of Jehanabad to Jitan Ram Manjhi's village Mahkar.
Like in most of India, in Bihar too, a VIP village usually speaks in one language irrespective of caste. But Mahkar, like most villages in the poll-bound state, has put caste above all. Some openly back Manjhi for obvious reasons, while there are those who talk about Nitish reaching out to Mahadalits and EBCs.
Resident editor of the Hindustan Times in Patna Mammon Mathew says Manjhi is very important for broad-basing of the NDA. The Grand alliance is 45%, NDA is 39% as per elections 2014. Out of 16% Dalits, Musahars are with him and his 8% can take NDA to 45%.'
During the days of Lalu Prasad, there was a lot of animosity between Dalits and Yadavs, as they felt that he only bothered about his own clan. It was Nitish who reached out to them but Mathew highlights how chemistry can create an arithmetic imbalance. "There are competing loyalties among Dalits. Dalits have been empowered by Nitish, there are competing hierarchies among Dalits, half of this goes to Manjhi."
Much like Manjhi 's Mahkar, Nitish Kumar's Kalyanbigha, too, is sending out a political message. While kurmis have come to terms with the fact that they will have to tolerate their tormentors the Yadavs, Lalu Yadav's explanation behind the alliance leaves them agitated. "Nitish won't let Lalu do back seat driving, he will act on his own," an upper caste farmer chips in. "Nitish was better off with BJP," he adds.
At the ruins of the Nalanda University, the 5th century seat of learning, the political enlightenment of Bihar is under discussion. "Nalanda is a Kurmi-sthan. Brahmins like me have no say here," laments a guide at the heritage site Yadunandan Prasad. "Nitish's first 5 years were good then something happened to him, how do we tolerate Lalu Yadav," he adds.
Bihar will vote on caste lines and nothing else. Caste is an undeniable reality in Bihar and 2 kms from the ruins of Nalanda - Mahadalits in Nirbalbigha too are angry with homeboy Nitish. "Nitish removed Manjhi and would have never dared to ill-treat an upper caste," they say.
In Yadav dominated Murgia Chak near Bihar Sharif, not everyone is backing their caste leader Lalu. Jogender Yadav says he voted for Narendra Modi in 2014 but that might change in 2015. "This time it's jaat and so it's Lalu," he says. But the younger Yadavs say their aspirations align more with Modi.
Some 300 kms away in Gopalganj , Lalu Prasad has many defenders in his village Phulwaria , which was made a block when he came to power in 1990. The fodder scam is dismissed as a conspiracy, his 2 sons contesting this elections is accepted as a birthright. "How is this parivaarvaad ? If a doctor's son can become a doctor , why can't a neta's son become a neta,"says Anand Rai - a graduate who has been looking for a job for the last 2 years.
When asked, ' what about Lalu's jungle raj', he replies, "he gave poor Dalits a voice, so for upper caste brahmins like you, it became jungle raj. It is all BJP propoganda."
Lalu grew up desperately poor , but his humble village home has seen constant upgrades in the last 20 years. The village itself has benefited from Lalu's political stardom. This is where I meet Ashraf Ali, a postgraduate who hasn't found a job in 3 years. "A railway station makes little sense for the village as only one train passes through it, Lalu should have built some industry instead that would have given us employment," he says.
Complex, close call, a tight race - multiple adjectives have been used to describe the Bihar elections of 2015. Pollsters are divided, the punters are having a tough time. The first phase of polling in 49 constituencies is over, but Biharis are still not revealing their cards. Visiting journalists are advised to read between the lines, and decipher what is 'not' said.
(Marya Shakil is Associate Editor politics & Shreya Dhoundial is Senior Editor at CNN-IBN. Here's a link to their third episode of Reporter's project from villages & constituencies of major players)
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