The fresh spate of focused killings in Kashmir in the last few weeks might have been sudden but not surprising.
After the immediate, palpitating lull created by the abrogation of Article 370 from Jammu and Kashmir and division of the erstwhile state into two Union Territories on August 5, 2019; the subsequent arrival of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020; and heavy anti-terror operations, terror groups operating in the region are looking to revitalise themselves and sharply assert their relevance — by creating maximum impact with minimum cost.
The most effective way to do that was to choose easy, harmless targets at their will. Over a dozen killings in the last week have shaken the Kashmiri populace and migrants working in the Valley. They have also found considerable space in military discourses and prime time.
The attacks were also discussed among top government officials in at least three high-level meetings since last week — between National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and intelligence officials on Thursday and Home Minister Amit Shah and J&K Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha on Friday. Another high-level government meeting took place on Monday evening on the security situation in the region.
The terrorists — affected by the factors mentioned above — have thus managed to get much of the attention they were looking for through these attacks.
In the last five years, there is no clear trend on civilian killings in the Valley in terms of numbers. Official data shows numbers have largely remained consistent since 2015, with the exceptions of 2017 and 2018, when it went up significantly.
As per the data, there were 33 civilian fatalities in 2020, 37 in 2021 and 15 this year, so far. A total of 52 civilians were injured in such attacks in 2020, 62 in 2021 and 85 in 2022 so far. Though there have been sporadic targeted killings of civilians in the past, many of the civilian deaths have also been a fallout of collateral damages during difficult anti-terror operations.
What sets the latest incidents apart is that the terrorists have mostly indulged in targeted killings of civilians, both Kashmiris and outsiders — including three minority Hindus — as against regular attacks on the security forces with the intention of terrorising civilians.
The timing of the attacks is also significant. They come during the peak tourist season in Kashmir and ahead of the Amarnath Yatra, when thousands of tourists and pilgrims from across the country flock to the Valley.
What does the data say?
Latest official data available with security forces shows that terrorist-initiated incidents have nearly doubled this year till the first week of June, as compared to the corresponding period last year.
There were 37 terrorist-initiated incidents in 2021 till June 3, which have gone up to 68 in the corresponding period this year. Overall, there were 142, 131 and 68 terrorist-initiated incidents in 2020, 2021 and 2022 till the first week of June.
This data tells a story when looked at in conjunction with the rise in the number of terrorists killed by security forces since 2020.
While just 49 terrorists were killed in 2021 till June 3, the number has nearly doubled to 94 this year in the corresponding period.
This shows the rise in terror incidents, which among other factors, could be attributed to an increase in the number of terrorists eliminated in anti-terror operations. Overall, 221, 181 and 94 terrorists were killed in 2020, 2021, and 2022 till the first week of June.
Why the latest spate of attacks?
A host of factors or their combination is crucial to understanding the latest spate of targeted civilian killings.
Months of inaction, prompted by the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019, Covid-19 pandemic and increased anti-terror operations leading to terrorist killings are among possible factors which are pushing these terror groups to act to show their pertinency.
Many analysts believe that some developmental activities in the Valley in the last two years, fear among militants of minority Hindus settling in the Valley and a subsequent alteration of the religious demography amid latest narratives on the Kashmiri Pandit exodus of the 1990s could have also put pressure on the militants, leading to the incidents.
Alternately, a crackdown on terror funding and directives to this effect from across the border to give out a message could have been contributing factors in keeping the pot boiling, I gathered during chats with multiple security officials. This is also evident with the pistols and grenades used by the terrorists in the killings, as against AK-47s used in terror attacks on security forces.
Official data shows that as many as 43, 30 and 29 of the terrorists killed in 2020, 2021 and 2022 till date were foreign terrorists.
Proactive steps needed to allay fears
The incidents have created fear in the minds of people, both locals and outsiders. Clearly, it is not possible for the security forces to provide protection to every individual, but as they intensify crackdown on terror groups, the government can take proactive steps to allay fears through adequate public outreach activities.
An effective government messaging will also impact the hybrid terrorists emerging in the Valley — those who have come to the forefront in the latest killings — who are not individuals with criminal records but are radicalised enough to carry out an attack before getting back to their regular lives.
The arrest of five such terrorists from the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) group last month, three of whom were involved in the killing of a sarpanch in Baramulla district, is one such example.
The terror incidents may somewhat temporarily affect private investments in the region, but it’s important to hasten the pace of government projects and maintain it. This remains a part of the political solution, aside from ensuring a fair representation of local Kashmiris in politics and higher bureaucracy.
The killings have affected one and all — both migrants and outsiders as well as the locals. While outsiders and Kashmiri Pandits are afraid of coming to the Valley for livelihood or resettling, local Kashmiris fear a backlash while travelling to other parts of the country.
This is the only truth. Any other narrative floated at this point will only aid the terrorists and add to the turmoil in the Valley.
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